摘要
“双碳”战略规划下,研究山东省碳储量发展趋势及演变特征,对山东省可持续发展具有重要参考意义。基于山东省2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS模型和InVEST模型估算得到山东省多期碳储量数据。结果表明:2000—2020年山东省碳储量在20年间减少了2.15×10^(7)t,且呈现持续减少态势。山东省2030年碳储量在自然发展情景和生态-耕地保护情景下,相较于2020年分别减少8.93×10^(6)t和增加5.81×10^(6)t。生态-耕地保护情景下山东省耕地减少速度放缓,建设用地扩张速度得到抑制,林地等高碳密度土地类型得到保护并有所增加,山东省碳储能力增强。研究结果可为山东省可持续发展和“双碳”战略规划的实施提供科学参考。
Under the“Dual Carbon”strategic planning,studying the development trends and evolutionary characteristics of carbon storage in Shandong Province is of significant reference value for the province′s sustainable development.Based on the land use data of Shandong Province in 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper estimates the multi-period carbon storage data of Shandong Province using the PLUS model and the InVEST model.The results show that the carbon storage in Shandong Province decreased by 2.15×10^(7)t in 20 years from 2000 to 2020,exhibiting a continuous downward trend.Compared with 2020,carbon storage in Shandong Province is projected to decrease by 8.93×10^(6)t in 2030 under the Natural Development scenario and increase by 5.81×10^(6)t under the Ecological-Cultivated land Protection scenario,respectively.Furthermore,under the Ecological-Cultivated Land Protection scenario,the rate of reduction for cultivated land in Shandong Province slowed,the expansion of construction land was curbed,and carbon-dense land types like forests were protected and expanded,thereby enhancing the province′s carbon storage capacity.The research results can provide a scientific reference for the implementation of the sustainable development and“Dual Carbon”strategic planning of Shandong Province.
作者
范强
孙虎虎
孙爽
张津宁
FAN Qiang;SUN Huhu;SUN Shuang;ZHANG Jinning(School of Geomatics,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China;College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2025年第4期1588-1598,共11页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(42204031)
中国博士后科学基金面上“地区专项支持计划”项目(2022MD723791)。
