摘要
本文利用2018—2020年江苏省逐日支气管炎就诊人次数据和国控站环境监测资料、气象基本站观测资料,研究了江苏省支气管炎的分布特征及其与大气污染物的相关关系,并基于时间序列半参广义相加模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM)构建了苏南、苏中和苏北地区空气质量健康指数(Air Quality Health Indexes,AQHI)。结果表明,江苏省支气管炎就诊人数呈现冬季多、夏季少的季节变化特征和周中多、周末少的周变化特征。苏南地区就诊人数最多,其次为苏中,苏北最少。大气污染物存在显著的季节变化特征以及地区差异,除O_(3)外,其他大气污染物与支气管炎就诊人数均存在显著的正相关关系。综合考虑各种大气污染物对支气管炎影响的地区差异和滞后效应,分别将苏南地区滞后3 d的NO_(2)、滞后1 d的PM_(2.5)、滞后1 d的PM_(10)、滞后2 d的O_(3);苏中地区滞后5 d的PM_(2.5)、滞后1 d的NO_(2)、滞后5 d的PM_(10)、滞后4 d的O_(3)以及苏北地区滞后1 d的NO_(2)、滞后4 d的O_(3)、当日的CO、当日的PM10纳入多污染物模型,分别发展了苏南、苏中和苏北地区AQHI。AQHI每上升一个四分位间距(Interquartile Range,IQR),苏南、苏中和苏北地区支气管炎就诊人数分别增加1.11%(95%CI:0.52%~2.4%)、1.14%(95%CI:0.51%~2.54%)和1.05%(95%CI:0.31%~3.56%)。不同地区AQHI和支气管炎就诊人数存在显著正相关关系,表明AQHI较好地反映了空气质量波动对以支气管炎为代表的呼吸道疾病的影响。
tBy using the daily data of bronchitis visits,air pollution and observed meteorological factors,the distribution characteristics of bronchitis and its association with air pollutants were analyzed,and the Air Quality Health Indexes(AQHI)for thesouthernJiangsu,central Jiangsuand northern Jiangsu from 2018 to 2020 based on a semi-parametic Generalized Additive Model(GAM)was constructed.Results show that the bronchitis visits in Jiangsu Province exhibit obvious seasonal variations with more in winter and less in summer,and weekly variations with more in weekday and less in weekend.The number of bronchitis visits was the highest in southern Jiangsu,followed by central Jiangsu,and lowest in northern Jiangsu.The air pollutants exhibit significant seasonal variations and regional diferences.Expect for O,other air pollutants show significant positive correlations with bronchitis visits,and there are regional differences in correlation coefficients.Taking into account the regional differences and lagged effects of various pollutants on the bronchitis,NO_(2) at lag 3 d,PM_(2.5) at lag 1 d,PM_(10) at lag 1 d,O_(3) at lag 2 d for southern Jiangsu,PM_(2.5) at lag 5 d,NO_(2) at lag 1 d,PMio at lag 5 d,O_(3) at lag 4 d for central Jiangsu,and NO_(2) at lag 1 d,O_(3) at lag 4 d,CO at lag 0 d,PM_(10) at lag 0 d for northern Jiangsu are included in the multi-pollution model,and AQHI for southern Jiangsu,central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu are developed respectively.For each increase in the Interquartile Range(IQR)of AQHI,thenumber of bronchitisvisitsin southern Jiangsu,central Jiangsu,and northern Jiangsu increased by 1.11%(95%CI:0.52%-2.4%),1.14%(95%CI:0.51%-2.54%),and 1.05%(95%CI:0.31%-3.56%).There are significant positive associations between AQHI and bronchitis visits in different regions,indicating that AQHI was robust in reflecting the impact of air quality fluctuations on respiratory diseases as typified by bronchitis.
作者
艾文文
桑小卓
罗晓春
单婵
姚阮
姜荣升
刘端阳
AI Wenwen;SANG Xiaozhuo;LUO Xiaochun;SHAN Chan;YAO Ruan;JIANG Rongsheng;LIU Duanyang(Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center,Nanjing 210019,China;Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing 210041,China)
出处
《气象科学》
2024年第6期1182-1194,共13页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
江苏省气象局面上资助项目(KM202204)。
