摘要
以流域为视角,基于河南省2000—2020年统计面板数据和遥感估算的生态环境质量数据,运用熵权法、耦合协调模型和SARIMA预测模型,对河南省内黄河流域、长江流域、海河流域、淮河流域四大流域生态环境质量和产业结构进行系统评价、耦合协调分析以及预测。结果表明:①2000—2020年河南省四大流域产业结构正进行逐步调整优化,第一产业产值、就业和效益水平不断下降,二、三产业的产值、就业和效益水平均逐渐上升,根据一、二、三产业各指标构建的四大流域内产业结构发展综合评价指数呈上升趋势,其中黄河流域的产业结构发展指数高于其他三个流域;②河南省四大流域内用于表征生态质量指标的植被指数FVC、叶面积指数LAI和初级生产力GPP均呈波动上升趋势,基于各遥感产品构建的生态环境质量指数(EQI)分析表明,河南省内生态系统质量总体呈向好趋势发展,其中长江流域生态质量最高,其平均生态环境质量指数(EQI)为54.88%,其次为淮河流域和黄河流域,海河流域平均EQI最低;③2000—2020年,河南省四大流域生态环境与产业结构的耦合协调度均呈上升趋势,长江流域的耦合协调度上升最快,但各流域耦合协调指数均在2013年呈现出明显的波动;④根据耦合协调度的预测结果显示,河南省内各流域生态环境质量和产业结构发展的耦合协调度均呈快速上升趋势,黄河流域耦合协调度上升幅度较快,将在2030年超过省内其他流域,其生态环境与产业结构协调度最高。
Based on the statistical panel data and remote sensing estimates of ecological environment quality in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020,the entropy weighting method,coupling and coordination model,and SARIMA prediction model are used to evaluate and forecast the ecological environment quality and industrial structure of the Yellow River,Yangtze River,Haihe River,and Huaihe River basins.The results show that:①From 2000 to 2020,the industrial structure of the four major river basins in Henan Province has been gradually adjusted and optimized.The output,employment,and benefits of the primary industry have declined,while those of the secondary and tertiary industries have increased.The comprehensive evaluation index of industrial structure development,based on primary,secondary,and tertiary industry indices,has shown an upward trend.The industrial structure development index of the Yellow River basin is higher than those of the other three basins.②The FVC(vegetation index),LAI(leaf area index),and GPP(primary productivity)in the four major river basins of Henan Province show an upward trend.The ecological quality index(EQI),based on remote sensing data,indicates a generally improving ecosystem quality in Henan Province.The Yangtze River basin has the highest ecological quality,with an average EQI of 54.88%,followed by the Huaihe River basin,Yellow River basin,and Haihe River basin,which has the lowest average EQI.③From 2000 to 2020,the coupling and coordination degrees of the ecological environment and industrial structure in the four major river basins of Henan Province show a rising trend,with the Yangtze River basin exhibiting the fastest increase in coupling and coordination.However,the coupling coordination index of each basin shows significant fluctuation in 2013.④Prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of ecological environment quality and industrial structure development in the four basins of Henan Province is rising rapidly,with the Yellow River basin increasing the fastest.By 2030,it is expected to surpass the other basins,achieving the highest degree of coordination between its ecological environment and industrial structure.
作者
王宁
王景旭
曹连海
王吉寅
梁通
晁越
郭新宇
房一辰
WANG Ning;WANG Jingxu;CAO Lianhai;WANG Jiyin;LIANG Tong;CHAO Yue;GUO Xinyu;FANG Yichen(College of Surveying and Geo-informatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Institute of Geography,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2025年第2期267-277,共11页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41971241)。
关键词
流域视角
产业结构
生态环境
耦合协调
耦合协调度预测
watershed perspective
industrial structure
ecological environment
coupling and coordination
forecast of coupling coordination degree
