摘要
为解决目前国内外主流风险评估模型中存在的“被割裂、不连续、弱关联、零散乱”等问题,通过综合运用解构聚构法、检查表法、专家打分法、AHP层次分析法提出一种新型交通枢纽公共安全风险评估模型。该模型先运用解构聚构法将被评估对象按照组织架构和物理边界进行格线化解构聚构,然后运用检查表法、专家打分法对各格线进行风险评估得出格线公共安全风险指数(以下简称安全指数),再运用AHP层次分析法逐级向上对各层级安全指数进行加权累加,最终生成被评估对象的安全指数。经实证研究测试,该模型可用于宏观、中观、微观公共安全风险评估,在信息化基础上可实时动态自动生成不同层级的量化安全指数,用以研判公共安全形势并及时向公众发布。
To address the issues of being fragmented,discontinuous,weakly correlated and scattered in mainstream risk assessment models both domestically and internationally,a new public safety risk assessment model for transportation hubs is proposed through the comprehensive use of deconstruction clustering method,checklist method,expert scoring method and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)method.First the model uses the deconstruction clustering method to deconstruct and cluster the evaluated object into grids and lines according to organizational structure and physical boundaries.Then the checklist method and expert scoring method are used to assess the risk of each grid-line to obtain the grid-line public safety risk index(hereinafter referred to as the safety index).The AHP method is used to weight and accumulate the safety indices of each level step by step,and finally generate the safety index of the evaluated object.Through empirical research and testing,this model can be used for macro,meso,and micro level public safety risk assessment.Based on information technology,it can dynamically and automatically generate quantitative safety indices at different levels in real time to assess the public safety situation and release them to the public in a timely manner.
作者
施鹏
马南
马明义
张鑫铭
尚喆
李洪德
马伟
SHI Peng;MA Nan;MA Mingyi;ZHANG Xinming;SHANG Zhe;LI Hongde;MA Wei(Beijing Security Transport Association,Beijing 101100,China;Beijing GongLian Transportation Hub Construction Management Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100091,China;Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport,Beijing 101160,China)
出处
《交通工程》
2025年第2期39-44,63,共7页
Journal of Transportation Engineering
关键词
交通运输
系统安全
格线化
解构聚构
公共安全
风险评估模型
transportation
system safety
griding&lining
deconstruction and aggregation
public safety
risk evaluation model
