摘要
评估并预测区域土地利用变化的生态风险可为地区的可持续性发展提供决策参考。本文以淮海经济区为研究区,在分析其1990—2020年土地利用动态变化的基础上,运用生态风险模型、空间自相关分析、PLUS模型模拟并剖析生态风险的时空特征和空间集聚规律。结果表明:(1)研究区近30年高生态风险区、较高生态风险区不断减少,土地利用生态风险整体呈下降趋势。高风险区分布在研究区中部和东南部,以水域分布为主。(2)土地利用生态风险分布存在空间正相关关系,以高-高和低-低聚集为主。(3)与自然发展情景相比,生态安全和耕地保护情景下2030年研究区高、较高生态风险区面积均有减少,有利于缓解研究区生态风险。研究区未来既要注重生态保护,同时也应适度保护耕地。
Ecological risk assessment and prediction of regional land use change provide the decision support for regional sustainable development.Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone as the research area,this study analyzed the dynamic changes in land use from 1990 to 2020 and used ecological risk models,spatial correlation analysis,and PLUS model simulations to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial clustering patterns of ecological risks in the area.The results indicate that:(1)In the past 30 years,the highest and higher ecological risks in the research area have been continuously decreasing,showing an overall downward trend in land use ecological risk.The highest ecological risks are mainly distributed in the central and southeastern parts of the research area,primarily around water area.(2)The spatial distribution of ecological risks associated with land use exhibits a positive spatial correlation,primarily characterized by high-high and low-low clustering.(3)Compared to natural development scenario,ecological security scenario and cultivated land protection scenario show a decreasing trend in the area of high and higher ecological risks by 2030,which is conducive to alleviating ecological risks in the research area.The study suggests that future strategies for the research area should focus on both ecological protection and moderate cultivated land conservation.
作者
张如
张宇
舒帮荣
罗敏
于小晴
兰健
ZHANG Ru;ZHANG Yu;SHU Bangrong;LUO Min;YU Xiaoqing;LAN Jian(School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Jiangsu Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处
《上海国土资源》
2024年第4期27-34,78,共9页
Shanghai Land & Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42101256)
江苏师范大学研究生科研创新项目(2024XKT0186)。
