摘要
地质灾害风险评价是地质灾害防治的重要手段。针对湖南省邵阳市隆回县城镇化建设引发的大量崩滑流地质灾害,为采取有效的防治措施,从地形地貌、地质构造、岩土体工程地质、人类工程活动等致灾因素方面选取13个评价因子,采用最大熵物种分布模型(MaxEnt模型)建立地质灾害危险性评价模型。从人口分布、经济背景、环境资源开发、防灾减灾能力等方面选取7个评价因子,利用系统聚类分析模型建立地质灾害易损性评价模型。综合两者的评价结果,构建研究区地质灾害风险评价模型,并将研究区划分为极低风险区、低风险区、中风险区、高风险区、极高风险区。研究结果表明:(1)在危险性评价中最大熵物种分布模型ROC的AUC值为0.918,表明模型在研究区地质灾害危险性预测中适用性较好;(2)陡坎、年平均降雨量、坡度、岩土体建造是影响研究区地质灾害发育主要的评价因子;(3)极高-高风险区面积为194.70 km^(2),占研究区总面积的6.80%,现有减灾能力条件下极高-高风险区的面积降低了30.38%,减灾效果较好,为隆回县地质灾害风险提供一种新的评价方法,并为政府的风险管理策略提供理论参考。
Geological disaster risk assessment is crucial for the prevention and control of geological disasters.This study focuses on the significant number of geological disasters induced by urbanization construction in Longhui County,aiming to propose effective preventive and control measures.The study considered various disaster-inducing factors and selected 13 assessment criteria from topography and geomorphology,geological structure,engineering geology of geotechnical bodies,and human engineering activities.The MaxEnt model is employed to establish the geological disaster hazard assessment model,while 7 assessment factors are selected from population distribution,economic background,environmental resources development,disaster prevention,and mitigation capacity.The systematic cluster analysis model was then utilized to establish a geological disaster vulnerability assessment model.The results of both assessments were integrated to construct a comprehensive geological disaster risk assessment model for the region,classifying areas into extremely low risk,low risk,medium risk,high risk,and extremely high risk.The result show that the AUC value of the MaxEnt model in the hazard assessment is 0.918,indicating its strong applicability in predicting the geological disaster hazard risk in the study area.Steep canyon,average annual rainfall,slope,and geotechnical construction are identified as the main factors influencing the development of geological disasters in the study area.The area classified as extremely high to high risk covers is 194.70 km^(2),accounting for 6.80%of the total area.Under existing disaster reduction capacity,the area with extremely high to high risk has been reduced by 30.38%,reflecting a positive impact on disaster reduction.This study introduces a novel method for the risk assessment of geological disasters in Longhui County and provides a theoretical basis for the government’s risk management strategy.
作者
张云
资锋
郭杰华
曹运江
段九龄
郭志刚
唐龙
ZHANG Yun;ZI Feng;GUO Jiehua;CAO Yunjiang;DUAN Jiuling;GUO Zhigang;TANG Long(School of Earth Sciences and Spatial Information Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan,Hunan411201,China;Sichuan Institute of Geological Engineering Investigation Group Co.Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan610072,China;Hunan Province Nature Resources Investigation Institute,Changsha,Hunan410007,China)
出处
《水文地质工程地质》
北大核心
2025年第1期190-201,共12页
Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41002022)
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ4295)
湖南省自然资源厅地质灾害调查项目(湘地调2022-77)
四川省地矿局科技创新项目(SCDKZCKJXM-2022055)
四川省自然资源厅科研项目(KJ-2023-31)。
