摘要
研究了1952-2001年舟山渔场渔获量和单位捕捞努力渔获量的变动,结果表明舟山渔场渔获量和单位捕捞努力渔获量的变动可分离为确定性趋势和平稳随机序列,进而用确定性趋势模型和ARMA(pq)模型叠合建立了舟山渔场渔业资源的动态模型。并对舟山渔场渔业资源变动的阶段性和资源的利用现状进行了讨论,提出了资源管理的措施。
Based on the investigation on the fluctuation of the catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) in Zhoushan Fishing Ground during the period from 1952 to 2001, it is showed that the catch and CPUE can be illustrated by determinacy tendency and stationary random sequence. Combining the determinacy tendency models with ARMA(p q)models, the complex models were built to describe the dynamics of fisheries resources. The stages of the fisheries resources fluctuation were divided. The utilization extent of fisheries resources was discussed and the fisheries managing measures were propounded.
出处
《水产学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第5期428-432,共5页
Journal of Fisheries of China
基金
美国MacArthur基金资助(00-65430)
