摘要
为了提高数值预报模式对台风远距离暴雨过程的预测准确性,文章结合2018-09-16在长江三角洲地区台风“山竹”引起的特大暴雨过程,利用Barnes滤波方法将ECMWF模式分离出大尺度与中小尺度系统,分析了各尺度系统中模式预报较弱的因子。结果表明:ECMWF模式预报的环流形势接近实况,且水汽输送条件较实况更有利于产生暴雨,仍然漏报了此次暴雨,说明弱冷空气是模式漏报此次台风远距离暴雨的主要原因;中α尺度低压和冷空气在近地层渗透是导致局地产生大暴雨和特大暴雨的直接原因。
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the NWP model for the remote rainstorm process of typhoon,this paper uses Barnes filtering method to separate the ECMWF model from large-scale and medium-sized systems,and analyzes the factors in each scale system where the model prediction is weak,in combination with the extremely heavy rainstorm process caused by typhoon Mangkhut in the Yangtze River Delta from September 16,2018.The results show that the circulation situation predicted by the ECMWF model is close to the actual situation,and the water vapor transport conditions are more conducive to the rainstorm than the actual situation,and the rainstorm is still missed,which indicates that weak cold air is the main reason for the model to miss the remote rainstorm of the typhoon.The infiltration of meso-α scale low pressure and cold air in the near surface layer is the direct cause of local heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm.
作者
于佳琪
李巍巍
Yu Jiaqi;Li Weiwei(Tongliao Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Tongliao 028000)
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2024年第6期55-58,共4页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
2023年通辽市气象局科技创新项目(202302)资助。
