摘要
目的:预测苏州市钉螺适生范围,为精准、高效地开展查螺工作提供科学依据。方法:钉螺定位数据经整理、质控后用ENMTools包筛选。环境数据下载自WorldClim全球气候数据库和资源环境科学数据平台,用ArcGIS 10.7软件统一坐标系和裁剪。使用MaxEnt 3.4.3软件建模,根据贡献率及彼此间相关性的大小筛选环境因子。模型预测结果用AUC值评价。结果:经筛选后41个钉螺分布点和12个环境因子纳入模型,其中最干季度平均温度(bio9)、最冷季度降水量(bio19)和最湿月降水量(bio13)对模型贡献率最高,分别是17.4%、15.0%和14.2%。AUC均值为0.922±0.05,模型拟合精度为“极好”。预测结果显示,苏州市钉螺高概率适生区主要分布在金庭镇、东山镇、光福镇等乡镇,占全市面积的3.02%,中概率适生区围绕在高概率适生区外围和沙溪镇,占全市面积的4.24%。结论:苏州市钉螺适生区面积约占全市面积的7.26%,可指导未来查螺工作。
Objective:To predict the suitable habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Suzhou,and to provide scientific basis for accurate and efficient snail investigation.Methods:The positioning data of Oncomelania hupensis were screened with ENMTools package after quality control.Environmental data were downloaded from WorldClim global climate database and Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform.ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to unify coordinate system and clip the environmental data.The MaxEnt 3.4.3 software was used to build model and filter the environmental factors according to the contribution rate and the correlation between them.The results of model prediction were evaluated by AUC value.Results:After selection,41 Oncomelania hupensis distribution sites and 12 environmental factors were included in the model,among which mean temperature of the driest quarter(bio9),precipitation of the coldest quarter(bio19)and precipitaion of the wettest month(bio13)contributed most to the model,whose contribution rate were 17.4%,15.0%and 14.2%,respectively.The average AUC was 0.922±0.05,and the model fitting accuracy was“excellent”.The prediction results showed that the high probability habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Suzhou was mainly distributed in Jinting Town,Dongshan Town,Guangfu Town and other towns,accounting for 3.02%of the total area of Suzhou city.The medium probability habitats were around the periphery of the high probability habitats and Shaxi town,accounting for 4.24%of the total area of Suzhou city.Conclusion:The potential suitable habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Suzhou city account for 7.26%of the total area of the city,which can guide the future snail investigation work.
作者
施倩雯
沈玲娥
周靖
吴敬之
SHI Qianwen;SHEN Ling e;ZHOU Jing;WU Jingzhi(Department of Schistosomiasis Endemic Parasitic Disease Control,Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Suzhou 215000,China)
出处
《东南大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
2024年第6期829-836,共8页
Journal of Southeast University(Medical Science Edition)
基金
江苏省预防医学及血地寄防科研课题(x202304)
苏州市“科教兴卫”青年科技项目(KJXW2021057)
苏州市卫生青年骨干人才“全国导师制”项目(Qngg2021031)。
关键词
苏州市
钉螺
预测
适生区
Suzhou city
Oncomelania hupensis
prediction
suitable habitats
