摘要
首先采用SDR权重加权法及主成分法分别对国际流动性与我国金融稳定性进行测度,结果表明短期内存在波动性,长期内均呈上升趋势。在此基础上基于SVAR模型冲击响应分析,国际流动性冲击和M2对我国金融稳定有正向的冲击影响,而GDP则有负向的冲击影响。依据方差分解结果,国际流动性冲击是影响我国金融稳定的最主要因素。依据断点回归验证了国际流动性冲击对我国金融稳定的影响具有时变特征。我国货币政策当局可根据经济形势,综合运用数量型货币政策M2和价格型货币政策利率,在促进经济增长的同时化解国际流动性冲击对我国金融稳定的影响。
Firstly,the SDR weighted method and principal component method were used to measure international liquidity and China s financial stability,and the results showed that there was volatility in the short term and an upward trend in the long term.Based on the shock response analysis of SVAR model,international liquidity shocks and M2 have a positive impact on China s financial stability,while GDP has a negative impact on GDP.According to the results of variance decomposition,international liquidity shocks are the most important factors affecting China s financial stability.Based on breakpoint regression,the time-varying characteristics of the impact of international liquidity shocks on China s financial stability are verified.China s monetary policy authorities could adopt quantitative monetary policy of M2 and price-based monetary policy of interest rates according to the economic situation to promote economic growth while resolving the impact of international liquidity shocks on China s financial stability.
作者
秦伟广
QIN Wei-guang(Business School,Ludong University)
出处
《当代金融研究》
2024年第11期77-90,共14页
Journal of Contemporary Financial Research
关键词
流动性冲击
金融稳定
货币政策
Liquidity Shock
Financial Stability
Monetary Policy
