摘要
近年来,各国人口年龄结构发生了深刻的变化。人口年龄结构是否会影响进出口贸易?本文基于《中国统计年鉴》(1999-2020年)和联合国数据库中的家庭消费支出构成数据,从重叠需求视角出发,探究人口年龄结构相似度对进出口贸易总额的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,人口年龄结构相似度的提高会引致进出口贸易总额的增加。机制分析表明,人口年龄结构相似度的提高通过引致需求结构相似度的提升来促进进出口贸易总额的扩大。进一步异质性分析表明,人口年龄结构相似度的提高对年龄敏感性强的行业、收入相近国家间和文化相近国家间进出口贸易的促进作用更强。在各国人口年龄结构快速变化和“逆全球化”叠加背景下,本文为中国当前对外贸易政策制定提供了新的思路和参考。
In recent years,the population age structure of various countries has undergone profound changes.Does their similarity in the population age structure affect their imports and exports?Based on the data of household consumption expenditure in China Statistical Yearbook(1999-2020)and the United Nations database,this paper tries to answer this question by studying the impact of the similar population age structure on imports and exports and its mechanism from the perspective of overlapping demand.It finds that the more similar the population age structure is,the larger the volume of imports and exports.Mechanism analysis shows that the increased similarity in the population age structure expands imports and exports as the demand structure also becomes more similar.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this promoting effect is stronger in highly-age-sensitive industries,countries with a similar income level and countries with similar culture.Against the background of the fast-changing population age structure in various countries and the rise of“anti-globalization”,this study provides new ideas and references for China to improve its foreign trade policy.Compared with the existing literature,this paper has the following marginal contributions.(1)Unlike most previous studies that focused on the supply side,this paper studies the impact of the similar population age structure on the total volume of imports and exports from the perspective of demand,expanding the perspective of analysis on this issue.(2)In terms of theoretical analysis,the existing literature fails to analyze the similarity of population age structure,demand structure and total imports and exports in the same framework,while based on the overlapping-demand theory,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the internal action mechanism of the three within the same framework,and explores the possible chain transfer relationship between them,thus supplementing to the theoretical framework related to population age structure and trade.(3)In terms of index construction,unlike most previous studies on the overlapped demand,this paper uses the per capita income gap or income distribution overlap index to measure the similarity of the demand structure.It uses household consumption expenditure composition data from China Statistical Yearbook(1999-2020)and UN Data to construct a new index based on the Euclidean distance to measure the similarity degree of the demand structure,and further improves the index system for measuring the similarity of the demand structure.By comparing the population age structure of China and that of 89 other sample countries in 1996 and 2019,we find that in this period,developing countries accounted for the majority(92.9%)of the 42 countries with a declining age structure similarity with China,while developed countries accounted for the majority(nearly 70%)of the 47 countries with an increasing age structure similarity with China.This shows that the age structure of China's population is approaching that of developed economies,while less similar to that of other developing economies.Based on the study conclusions and the changes to China's population age structure,this paper gives the following policy recommendations.(1)China should formulate differentiated trade strategies for developed economies and developing economies.In the future,China should carry out more intraindustry trade based on diversified demand and increasing returns to scale with developed economies,while strengthening inter-industry trade based on endowment differences with other developing economies.(2)When conducting trade with developing economies,China should pay close attention to the negative pressure from the demand side caused by the change in the similarity of the population age structure.In particular,during the sample period,the population age structure similarities between China and sub-Saharan central African countries declined the most,and China's trade with them also faced greater demand-side pressure.China can sign more trade cooperation agreements that cover more areas with these countries to strengthen trade ties and hedge negative impacts from the demand side.(3)China should strive to increase the disposable income of residents,reduce its income gap with developed economies,actively promote cross-cultural exchanges,enhance mutual understanding,recognition and trust,and narrow the cultural distance with developed economies,to fully unleash the import and export promoting effect of the increased similarity of the population age structure.It is worth noting that the cultural distance between China and the developed economies in northern Europe,such as Denmark,Sweden and Norway,is large,and these countries can be the focus of cultural exchanges and communication.(4)As the micro subject of the market economy,enterprises should optimize their strategic layout based on the changes to China's population age structure,take the initiative to seize the trade growth opportunities with developed economies in the highly-age-sensitive industries,actively participate in related import and export business,and improve their market performance.
作者
刘斌
屈一军
王枝凡
LIU Bin;QU Yijun;WANG Zhifan(University of International Business and Economics,100029;Renmin University of China,100872)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第10期151-168,共18页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“贸易开放、国内运输成本与南北经济差距”(72173020)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“全球经贸规则重构背景下的WTO改革研究”(21JZD023)
对外经济贸易大学国际经贸规则实验室培育项目(KYSYS-06)。
关键词
人口年龄结构
重叠需求
进出口贸易
Population Age Structure
Overlapping Demand
Imports and Exports
