摘要
采用灰色关联法,对深港之间的跨界交通影响因素与客流量的关联大小进行量化计算,经测算,深港两地的人口总量、国内生产总值、旅游收入、进出口贸易总额以及口岸通关能力可作为跨界客流的主要影响因素;基于此,采用广泛应用于城市交通需求预测的重力模型,构建深港跨界客流预测模型,建立跨界客流量与影响因素之间的定量关系;并使用Matlab软件对模型参数进行标定,并将模型预测值和历史实际值进行对比,对模型精度进行检验。结果表明,改进重力模型预测误差可控制在6%以内,模型具有较好的适用性。
Using the grey correlation method,the correlation between cross-border factors and passenger flow between Shenzhen and Hong Kong is quantitatively calculated.After calculation,the total population,gross domestic product,tourism revenue,total import and export trade,and port clearance capacity of Shenzhen and Hong Kong can be considered as the main influencing factors of cross-border passenger flow;Based on this,a gravity model widely used for predicting urban transportation demand is adopted to construct a cross-border transportation passenger flow prediction model between Shenzhen and Hong Kong,and establish a quantitative relationship between cross-border passenger flow and influencing factors;And,calibrate the model parameters using Matlab software,compare the predicted values of the model with historical actual values,and test the accuracy of the model.The results indicate that the improved gravity model can control the prediction error within 6%,and the model has good applicability.
作者
肖胜
XIAO Sheng(Shenzhen Urban Planning&Land Resource Research Center,Shenzhen 518000,China)
出处
《交通工程》
2024年第9期105-110,共6页
Journal of Transportation Engineering
关键词
跨界交通
需求预测
灰色关联分析
重力模型
深港
cross border traffic
demand forecast
grey correlation analysis
gravity model
Shenzhen and Hong Kong
