摘要
面对巨大的气候变化损害以及高额的减排行动成本,如何在多时期、多主体框架下统筹经济发展与减排行动,协同推进发展与减排,成为全球气候治理中的关键议题。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,构建了收益统筹理论。该理论在综合集成时间统筹、空间统筹、效率统筹相关理论与方法基础上,以最优经济增长为核心,将碳排放问题引入长期宏观经济分析中,深入探析经济发展与减排行动二者间的复杂关系,构建了经济-气候双向耦合的中国气候变化综合评估模型,并设计了多区跨期优化福利函数,实现发展与减排的统筹。基于碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论,应用中国气候变化综合评估模型C3IAM,明确了未来全球及各区域最优减排路径,并提出了各国及国家内部减排任务分配方案,科学回答了碳减排系统工程的减多少、何时减、谁来减、如何减、何效果等关键问题,为统筹发展与减排提供方法基础。
Faced with the significant damages caused by climate change and the high costs associated with mitigation actions,balancing economic development and mitigation within a multi-period multi-agent framework has become a critical issue in global climate governance.As part of the series of papers on the carbon mitigation “Time-Space-Efficiency-Benefit”(TSEB) coordination theory,this paper proposes a benefit coordination theory.On the basis of integrating the relevant theories of time coordination,space coordination,and efficiency coordination,the theory takes optimal economic growth as the core and integrates the issue of carbon emissions into long-term macroeconomic analysis,deeply exploring the complex relationship between economic development and mitigation actions.We construct the China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model with bidirectional coupling of economy and climate and design a multi-regional intertemporal welfare optimization function to realize the coordination between economic development and mitigation actions.Based on the carbon mitigation“Time-Space-Efficiency-Benefit”(TSEB) coordination theory,China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model is applied to identify future optimal mitigation pathways at the global and regional levels.It also proposes mitigation task allocation schemes for different countries and within countries,scientifically answering the key questions of carbon emission reduction system engineering,such as the optimal timing of reductions,the scale of reductions,the responsible parties,the methods of reduction,and the expected outcomes,which provides a methodological basis for coordinating economic development and carbon mitigation.
作者
魏一鸣
易琛
袁潇晨
陈炜明
余碧莹
WEI Yiming;YI Chen;YUAN Xiaochen;CHEN Weiming;YU Biying(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Joint International Research Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality System and Engineering Management(MoE of China),Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期39-49,共11页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72293600,72488101,72293605)。
关键词
碳减排
收益统筹
气候经济建模
成本收益分析
跨期优化
carbon mitigation
benefit coordination
climate-economy modeling
benefit-cost analysis
intertemporal optimization
