摘要
自2008年以来,随着实力对比的变化,中美双边经贸关系的基础逻辑也发生了根本性变化。从经济学的长周期视角来分析中美经贸关系有利于进一步明确其未来发展方向。在全球化以及经济周期交错的背景下,尽管作为守成大国的美国和崛起大国的中国之间的经贸政策互动越来越复杂,但是如果拉长周期跨度来观察,同时考虑疫情、地缘政治等因素的影响,可以发现中美经贸关系的基础逻辑就是战略竞争,核心内容是争夺下一个长周期的优势地位,双方相互依存度则呈现螺旋式下降态势。其中,科技是经济权力的关键要素,也是中美竞争的最大变量。虽然美国和中国当前在一些新技术领域仍然是遏制与被遏制的关系,在应对经济周期的宏观调控上美国的外溢影响更大,但中国作为崛起大国的政策自主性正在加强。从长周期角度来看中美双方的施策定锚,其经济政策的一致性和互动性特点会更加明显。
In the wake of the 2007-2008 U.S.financial crisis,besides the economic cycle factors,containing China’s rising and winning in strategic competition have become a crucial consideration in U.S.trade policy.As countercyclical regulation and industrial strategy are not completely synchronized,and there is sometimes a conflict between the two,it appears to be inevitable that competition between established and emerging powers will result in policy distortions. However, the long-cycle theory may be able to provide a perspective to explain that they are complementary, as under long-term objectives the great power will coordinate the cyclical regulation and strategic competition in the same direction. The core content of the economic relationship between China and the United States at present and in the future is to compete for the next long-cycle advantage-technological competitiveness. Although in the past China has been heavily influenced by cyclical regulation and active competition imposed by the United States, China’s trade policy is gradually becoming more independent and autonomous.
出处
《国际展望》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期27-46,146,147,共22页
Global Review
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“新干预主义下多边治理体系的困境与应对”(2023BGJ001)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
中美关系
经贸关系
长周期
战略竞争
China-U.S.relations
economics
long cycle
competition
