摘要
选取江苏省为研究区,对省内22个气象站的近60年气温逐月数据进行分析。通过数据统计、线性回归法对研究区内年均、四季气温进行时空变化特征分析。依托模糊综合评判模型对年均、四季气温及其变化幅度进行分类评定。结果表明:(1)江苏省多年平均的年及四季气温均呈现上升趋势,且各年代变幅不一,尤以20世纪60年代变幅(1.7℃)最大,除夏季外,其他三季上升趋势更为突出。(2)通过模糊综合评判模型计算,春冬两季气温等级属于一般级别,而夏秋两季属于较高级别;春季气温的变幅为一般级别,夏秋季的变幅为略小级别,冬季的变幅为略大级别。
Selecting Jiangsu Province as the research area,analyze monthly temperature data from 22 meteorological stations in the province over the past 60 years.Analyze the changes of annual and seasonal temperatures in the study area through data statistics and linear regression method.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,classify and evaluate the annual and seasonal temperatures and their changes.The results indicate:(1)The average annual and four season temperatures in Jiangsu Province have shown an upward trend for many years,with varying degrees of variation across different eras,with the greatest variation(1.7℃)occurring in the 1960s,except for summer,the upward trend in the other three seasons is more prominent.(2)Through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model calculation,Spring and winter air temperatures are at average levels,while summer and autumn temperatures are at higher levels;the variation of air temperature in spring is average,while the variation in summer and autumn is slight ly smaller,the variation in winter is slightly larger.
作者
甄自强
湛忠宇
刘美丽
熊俊青
Zhen Ziqiang;Zhan Zhongyu;Liu Meili;Xiong Junqing(Yunnan Provincial Department of Water Conservancy,Rural Hydropower and Electrification Development Bureau,Kunming Yunnan 650233,China;Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing Jiangsu 210012,China;Water Environment Mon-itoring Center of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Jiangsu,210012,China;Jiangxi Provincial Finance Pub-lic Service Center,Nanchang Jiangxi 300008,China)
出处
《环境与发展》
2024年第4期42-46,共5页
Environment & Development
关键词
变化趋势
波动幅度
等级划分
评判模型
特征分析
Variation tendency
Fluctuation range
Grade classification
Evaluation model
Feature analysis
