摘要
碳排放回弹效应能够反应地区低碳减排效果。本研究基于2007-2020年间新疆生产建设兵团农业面板数据,测算由农业技术进步引起的农业碳排放回弹效应,并通过LMDI指数分析模型对农业碳排放回弹量进行影响因素分解。结果表明:1)兵团各师市农业碳排放总量峰值出现在2015年,碳排放总量变化呈现整体上升趋势;2)兵团各师市普遍存在农业碳排放回弹效应且地区差距较大,个别师市存在“回火效应”,技术减碳效果仍有提升空间;3)对兵团农业碳排放回弹量LMDI分解发现溢出效应和技术效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在抑制作用,单产效应和面积效应对农业碳排放回弹效应存在正向驱动作用。基于此,建议兵团继续进行技术研发以增加农业要素生产效率,减少农业碳排放面积回弹效应和单产回弹效应并加快农业绿色发展。
The rebound effect of carbon emissions can reflect the effect of regional low-carbon emission reduction.Based on the agricultural panel data of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(XPCC)from 2007 to 2020,this paper calculates the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions caused by the progress of agricultural technology.It uses the LMDI index analysis model to decompose the influencing factors of the rebound amount of agricultural carbon emissions.The results showed that:1)the peak of total agricultural carbon emissions appeared around 2015,and the change of total agricultural carbon emissions showed an overall upward trend.2)The rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions is common among all the division cities of XPCC,and the regional gap is large.The"tempering effect"exists in some individual division cities,and the technical carbon reduction effect still has room to improve.3)The LMDI decomposition of agricultural carbon emission rebound of XPCC found that spillover effect and technical effect inhibited the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emission,while unit yield effect and area effect positively drove the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emission.Based on this,it is suggested that XPCC should continue technological research and development to increase agricultural factor production efficiency,reduce agricultural carbon emission area effect and yield per unit effect,and accelerate agricultural green development.
作者
潘铮
吉泽男
王鹏程
PAN Zheng;JI Zenan;WANG Pengcheng(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300)
出处
《塔里木大学学报》
2024年第2期84-94,共11页
Journal of Tarim University
关键词
农业碳排放
农业技术进步
LMDI指数分析
回弹效应
agricultural carbon emission
agricultural technology progress
LMDI index analysis
rebound effect
