摘要
为探索建成环境及其他因素对行人事故伤害严重程度的影响,通过建立均值和方差异质性随机参数Logit模型对交叉口行人事故严重程度进行异质性分析。利用行人碰撞事故数据,从行人、驾驶员、车辆、道路、环境、时间、建成环境7个方面筛选出27个影响因素,通过弹性系数分析显著变量对事故严重程度的影响程度。结果表明:地铁站可达性为“存在”是随机参数,车辆状态为“其他”会减小该随机参数的均值,降低交叉口行人事故严重程度;方差与“下午”显著相关,此变量会使随机参数的离散程度增加,分布变宽,随机性增加;不同用地类型与交叉口类型对行人事故严重程度的影响具有显著差异,用地类型为商业区、地铁站的可达性为“存在”时,交叉口行人发生交通事故的概率与伤害严重程度降低;行人有不当行为等因素显著增加了交叉口行人事故严重程度。研究结果为制定交叉口建成环境的优化改善措施提供参考和依据。
In order to investigate the influence of built environment and other factors on the severity of pedestrian accidents,a random parameters Logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances was established to analyze the heterogeneity of pedestrian accident injury severities at intersections.By use of the data of pedestrian collision accidents,27 influencing factors were selected from six aspects such as pedestrians and drivers,vehicles,roads,environment,time and built environment.The elasticity coefficient was used to analyze the influence of significant variables on accident injury severities.The results show that the existing of the accessibility of subway station is a random parameter,and setting the vehicle status as other will reduce the mean value of the random parameter and pedestrian accident injury severities at the intersections.Variance is significantly related to afternoon,which will increase the dispersion of random parameter,widen the distribution and increase the randomness.The impact of different land use types and intersection types on pedestrian accident injury severities is significantly different.When the accessibility of commercial areas and subway stations exists,the probability and severity of pedestrian accidents at intersections decrease.Moreover,factors such as pedestrian misconduct significantly increase the severity of pedestrian accidents at intersections.The research results provide a reference and basis for formulating the optimization and improvement measures of the built environment of intersections.
作者
潘义勇
李烁
PAN Yiyong;LI Shuo(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期87-93,117,共8页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51508280)。
关键词
交通运输工程
交叉口行人事故
事故严重程度
均值和方差异质性随机参数Logit
建成环境
traffic and transportation engineering
pedestrian accidents at intersection
accident injury severities
random parameter Logit with heterogeneity in means and variances
built environment
