摘要
立足燃料燃烧和区域电力交易两大单元构建能源系统碳排放核算方法,基于四川省2000—2021年的实际数据,结合拓展后的STIRPAT模型实证分析人口规模、经济发展、技术创新、能源结构和产业结构对碳排放的差异化影响效应。研究结果表明:①化石燃料燃烧是能源系统关键碳排放源,其中工业终端能源消费占据主导地位,交通运输业和居民生活碳足迹也不容忽略;区域电力交易在保障能源供应安全的同时间接推动中国低碳发展进程。②人口规模通过人群和文明效应驱动碳排放,未来影响程度取决于多孩生育政策对人口负增长趋势的扭转成效;经济发展与能源消费有待脱钩,考虑到经济上升期现状和“污染避难所”现象,其仍为碳排放关键驱动因素;经费投入增加推动节能降碳领域科研成果产出及应用,并通过技术驱动和创新补偿降低碳排放水平;能源结构高碳特征对温室效应贡献显著,立足资源禀赋的消费结构转型有助于降低排放强度;第二产业在国民经济中的主体地位带动能源系统碳排放显著增加,近年来以高新技术产业为代表的第三产业占比提升有效控制了高污染、高能耗产业的碳排放。
Based on the two major units of fuel combustion and regional electricity trading,the paper constructs the carbon emission accounting method of energy system,takes empirical study on the differential effects of population size,economic development,technological innovation,energy structure,and industrial structure on carbon emission of energy system based on the time series data of Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2021 and combined with the expanded STIRPAT model.The results show that:①Fossil fuel combustion is the key carbon emission source of energy system,in which industrial terminal energy consumption is dominant,and the carbon footprint of transportation industry and residents'life cannot be ignored,regional electricity trading indirectly promotes the low-carbon development of China while ensuring the safety of energy supply.②The population size drives the carbon emission of energy system through crowd effect and civilization effect,its future influence depends on the reversal effect of the“multi-child”birth policy on the negative population growth trend,economic development and energy consumption need to be further decoupled,and economic development is still the key driver of carbon emission considering the current situation of economic uptrend and the phenomenon of pollution shelters.The increase in research funding would promote the output and application of scientific research achievements in the field of energy conservation and carbon reduction,which will reduce the carbon emission of energy system through technology driving and innovative compensation.The high-carbon characteristics of energy structure contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect,and the transformation of consumption structure based on resource endowment would help to reduce emission intensity.The dominant position of the secondary industry in economic and social development has led to a significant increase in carbon emission of energy system.In recent years,the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry represented by high-tech industries has effectively controlled the driving effect of industries with high pollution and energy consumption on carbon emission.
作者
李乔楚
张鹏
陈军华
LI Qiaochu;ZHANG Peng;CHEN Junhua(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)
出处
《油气与新能源》
2024年第3期70-78,共9页
Petroleum and new energy
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(22XGL019)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(22&ZD105)。
关键词
能源系统
碳排放
清单算法
STIRPAT模型
影响因素
四川省
Energy system
Carbon emission
Inventory accounting method
STIRPAT model
Influencing factors
Sichuan Province
