摘要
为了评估大规模风电并网后的发输电系统经济风险,提出了ECM算法和切片采样算法结合拉丁超立方采样算法的组合采样算法,以及基于组合采样算法的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)模拟法。首先,采用加权高斯混合分布建立风电场出力概率模型,并采用ECM算法进行参数估计;其次,通过切片采样算法对风电场模型进行采样得到初始样本空间,再采用拉丁超立方采样算法对初始样本进行处理获得最终样本空间;再次,建立了风电并网的发输电系统经济风险评估模型并给出经济风险指标;最后,以IEEE-RTS79系统为标准算例,仿真验证了本文所提算法的有效性和准确性,并以MCMC方法对风电并网的发输电系统进行经济风险评估。仿真结果表明:ECM算法所确定的加权高斯混合分布能够准确拟合风电场出力波动的概率分布特性,组合采样算法在满足精度要求的条件下降低了样本规模,提高了算法的计算效率。风险评估结果表明适当的风电并网容量和合理的风电并网位置会降低发输电系统的经济风险。
In order to evaluate the economic risk of large-scale wind power generation and transmission systems after grid-connected,a combined sampling algorithm based on ECM algorithm and slice sampling algorithm combined with Latin hypercube sampling algorithm was proposed,and a Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulation method based on combined sampling algorithm was proposed.Firstly,the weighted Gaussian mixture distribution is used to establish the wind farm output probability model,and the ECM algorithm is used to estimate the parameters.Secondly,the slice sampling algorithm is used to sample the wind farm model to obtain the initial sample space,and then the Latin hypercube sampling algorithm is used to process the initial sample to obtain the final sample space.Thirdly,the economic risk assessment model of grid-connected wind power generation and transmission system is established and the economic risk index is given.Finally,with IEEE-RTS79 system as a standard example,the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed algorithm are verified by simulation,and the economic risk assessment of grid-connected wind power generation and transmission system is carried out by MCMC method.The simulation results show that the weighted Gaussian mixture distribution determined by ECM algorithm can accurately fit the probability distribution characteristics of wind farm output fluctuations,and the combined sampling algorithm can reduce the sample size and improve the computational efficiency under the condition of meeting the accuracy requirements.The result of risk assessment shows that the economic risk of power generation and transmission system can be reduced by proper capacity and reasonable location of wind power grid connection.
作者
刘庭响
安娜
马俊雄
周万鹏
李春来
LIU Tingxiang;AN Na;MA Junxiong;ZhOU Wanpeng;LI Chunlai
出处
《青海电力》
2024年第2期14-22,37,共10页
Qinghai Electric Power
关键词
风电并网
发输电系统
马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟法
组合采样算法
经济风险评估
wind power grid connection
generation and transmission system
Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation
vombinatorial sampling algorithm
economic risk assessment
