摘要
为了微观刻画地铁乘客的病毒传播,构建了吸入病毒概率与社交距离之间的函数关系,建立了病毒载量增加量和减少量的计算公式,在此基础上建立了病毒载量演化方程,其中防疫措施的效果以归一化的参数描述。通过Anylogic软件的二次开发接口,对每个乘客的病毒载量进行编程,刻画每个乘客在感染前和感染后两个阶段的病毒载量变化。仿真初始时刻设定10%的乘客被病毒感染,包括普通感染者和超级感染者。对不同乘客数量条件下的病毒演化进行仿真,分为有管控和无管控两种场景。仿真结果表明:随着乘车人数的增多,乘客密度增大,病毒传播增强,个体病毒载量增加较快;对病毒载量大于1000的乘客进行管控,禁止其乘车,可将所有乘客的病毒载量降低一个数量级。
A functional relationship was constructed between the probability of inhaling viruses and social distance to characterize the viral transmission of subway passengers at the microscopic level.Formulas for calculating the increase and decrease of viral load were constructed based on establishing the viral load evolution equation.Normalized parameters were used within this equation to describe the effect of pandemic prevention measures.The viral load of each passenger was programmed through the Anylogic software’s secondary development interface to characterize the viral load change at the pre-and post-infection phases.In the initial simulation settings,10%of the passengers were infected with the virus,including ordinary carriers and supercarriers.The evolution of the virus under different passenger number conditions within subway carriages was simulated,which was categorized into with-control and without-control scenarios.The simulation results showed the following:as the number of passengers increases,the passenger density increases,the virus transmission increases,and the individual viral load increases rapidly.Isolating passengers with a viral load greater than a threshold of 1000 and prohibiting them from taking the subway can reduce the viral load of all passengers by an order of magnitude.
作者
卢守峰
黄志康
赵红云
LU Shoufeng;HUANG Zhikang;ZHAO Hongyun(Transportation Engineering College,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China;Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Transportation Infrastructure Security Technology,Nanjing 211816,China;Traffic Police Detachment of Yueyang Public Security Bureau,Yueyang 414021,China)
出处
《山东科学》
CAS
2024年第2期97-103,共7页
Shandong Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71071024)。
