摘要
为分析建筑业能源消耗影响因素,采用STIRPAT模型,基于2007—2021年吉林省建筑业相关数据,采用岭回归法进行分析。结果表明:城市化率、建筑业总产值、产业结构和能源强度均对吉林省建筑业能耗有显著影响,且每变化1%,能源消耗量的变化为1.785%、0.721%、-0.879%和0.965%。经对吉林省建筑业能耗量预测发现:当城市化率低速增长、能源强度高速下降及第二产业占比低速下降时,吉林省建筑业能耗量增长速度最慢,并据此提出相应的节能对策。
In order to analyze the influencing factors of energy consumption in the construction industry,STIRPAT model was used,based on the relevant data of the construction industry in Jilin Province from 2007 to 2021,the ridge regression method was used for analysis.The results show that the urbanization rate,the total output value of the construction industry,the industrial structure and the energy intensity have a significant impact on the energy consumption of the construction industry,and the energy consumption will change by 1.785%,0.721%,-0.879% and 0.965% for every 1% change of each variable.According to the forecast of energy consumption of construction industry in Jilin Province,it was found that when the urbanization rate increases at a low speed,the energy intensity decreased at a high speed and the proportion of the second industry decreases at a low speed,the energy consumption of construction industry in Jilin province increased at a low speed,and the corresponding energy-saving countermeasures were put forward.
作者
严雯莲
季忠洋
YAN Wen-lian;JI Zhong-yang(School of Economics and Management,Jilin Jianzhu University,Changchun,Jilin,130118,China)
出处
《建材技术与应用》
2024年第1期42-46,共5页
Research and Application of Building Materials
基金
吉林省教育厅科学研究项目(JJKH20220301SK)。
关键词
建筑业
能源消耗
STIRPAT模型
情景预测
construction industry
energy consumption
STIRPAT model
scenario prediction
