摘要
为了更全面地掌握可靠性指标的离散度以及支撑还原其概率分布,提出了一种用于各阶矩和半不变量形式的可靠性指标快速计算方法。该方法采用了基于状态枚举的影响增量技术,将影响增量概念应用于各阶原点矩计算式的推导,通过概率整合加快了各阶原点矩指标的收敛;利用原点矩与中心矩、半不变量的计算关系,实现了对于各阶矩与不变量指标的高效计算。并在IEEE-39系统和IEEE-118系统中验证了所提方法用于一阶矩到三阶矩计算的误差均小于1%,相比蒙特卡洛法节约了一半的计算时间,为还原可靠性指标的概率分布提供了各阶矩与不变量等关键参数。
To obtain the index dispersion and further support the probability distribution,an efficient method is proposed for the moment and semi-invariant calculation in the reliability index.The method is based on the state enumeration and impacts increment method,improving the calculation efficiency of the moments of each order.Moreover,the relations between the origin moment,central moment and semi-invariant are utilized to realize the effective calculation of the moment and the invariant index.In the IEEE-39 system and IEEE-118 system,errors of the proposed method for calculating first-order to third-order moments are less than 1%,which saves half of the computing time compared with the Monte Carlo method.The method provides key parameters that support further analysis of the probability distribution.
作者
霍现旭
张军
戚艳
董紫珩
孙业广
侯恺
HUO Xianxu;ZHANG Jun;QI Yan;DONG Ziheng;SUN Yeguang;HOU Kai(Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300384,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Internet of Things in Electricity,Tianjin 300384,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Corporation,Tianjin 300010,China;Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期4604-4612,共9页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
国网天津市电力公司科技项目(KJ21−1−35)。
关键词
可靠性评估
影响增量
概率分布
负荷削减量
高阶矩
半不变量
reliability assessment
impact increment
probability distribution
load curtailment
higher moment
semi-invariant
