摘要
本研究介绍了CA-Markov模型预测土地侵蚀的方法,分析了宜昌市2000年、2010年和2020年三期的土壤侵蚀强度空间分布数据,提出以这三期数据作为预测基准年,利用CA-Markov模型进行精度验证后来预测宜昌市2030年土壤侵蚀情况,并在此基础上分析宜昌市2030年土壤侵蚀强度空间分布及土壤侵蚀发展趋势。结果表明:宜昌市2030年土壤侵蚀情势总体向好发展,水土流失面积与强度呈现“双下降”态势,水土流失面积下降至2493.6km~2;秭归县、当阳市、兴山县等区域土壤侵蚀情势仍然不容乐观,高强度侵蚀面积出现净增长,仍是未来水土保持的工作重点。
This study introduces the method of predicting land erosion using the CA-Markov model and analyzes the spatial distribution data of soil erosion intensity in Yichang City in 2000,2010,and 2020.By using these three periods as benchmark years and conducting accuracy verification with the CA-Markov model,the study predicts the soil erosion situation in Yichang City in 2030.On this basis,the spatial distribution of soil erosion intensity and the development trend of soil erosion in Yichang City in 2030 were analyzed.The results show that the overall soil erosion situation in Yichang City in 2030 was improving,and the area and intensity of soil erosion present a "double decline" trend,with the area of soil erosion decreasing to 2493.6 km~2.However,the soil erosion situation in regions such as Zigui County,Dangyang City,and Xingshan County is still not optimistic,and the net increase in high-intensity erosion area remains a key focus of future soil and water conservation work.
作者
邱萌丹
QIU Mengdan(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)
出处
《黑龙江环境通报》
2024年第1期30-33,共4页
Heilongjiang Environmental Journal
