摘要
统计分析了1980—2019年间影响我国沿海的400多次台风风暴潮过程,从增水和超警戒潮位两个方面研究其时空分布特征。结果表明:我国沿海最大增水2 m以上的大台风风暴潮过程数及其波动幅度有增加的趋势,近十年增加频次显著,同时弱台风风暴潮过程也有增加,并呈现两级分化的态势;增水年极值整体呈增加趋势;造成40年台风增水极值的台风有近一半出现在最近十年,极有可能说明近十年影响我国的强台风有增强的态势;浙南闽北地区是出现超警过程最多的地区,但大的台风风暴潮过程数少于珠江口和雷州半岛东岸,这两个地区也是台风风暴潮危险性最高的地区。
Statistical analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of tropical storm surges(TSS)has been conducted for more than 400 events affecting the coastal area of China in 1980—2019.It is shown that the number and variation amplitude of severe TSS event with maximum residual value exceeding 2 meters have an increasing trend during the past 40 years,especially in the past decade.Meanwhile,the number of weak TSS event has increased.The annual extreme TSS also increased in the past 40 years.In the past 40 years,nearly 50%of the typhoons which cause extreme surges appeared in the last decade,which is likely to indicate that the strong typhoons affecting the coastal area of China are increasing.Over-warning-threshold TSS events occurred in the southern Zhejiang and northern Fujian Province,but number of extreme surges in these two regions is smaller than that in the Pearl River Estuary and the East Bank of Leizhou Peninsula,where own the highest risk of TSS hazard.
作者
付翔
梁森栋
郭洪琳
李明杰
叶琳
FU Xiang;LIANG Sendong;GUO Honglin;LI Mingjie;YE Lin(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《海洋预报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期1-11,共11页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项资助项目(2021YFB3900405、2017YFA0604901)。
关键词
台风风暴潮
增水
超警
时空分布
tropical storm surge
surge value
over-warning-threshold
temporal and spatial distribution
