摘要
降雨-径流关系是流域产水能力的关键表征。受气候变化、下垫面改变和人类活动的耦合影响,降雨与径流之间的相关性呈现出一定的非一致性变化,不同因素的影响仍有待量化。耦合去趋势互相关分析与去趋势偏互相关分析方法,提出了一种降雨-径流非一致性关系驱动要素识别与影响估算方法,量化了气象条件、下垫面条件和人类活动的贡献。结果表明:构建的量化方法对非一致性序列具有良好的适用性;人类活动对渭河流域降雨-径流关系的影响最大,平均贡献率为58.86%,气象条件次之,下垫面条件影响最小;人类活动对渭河流域降雨-径流关系的影响在时域上总体处于持续增长态势,空间上呈现渭河干流上中游>泾河流域>北洛河流域。
Rainfall-runoff relationship is crucial in characterizing a watershed's capability to generate runoff.Links between rainfall and runoff have changed inconsistently as a result of the coupling effects of climate change,underlying surface change,and human activities;and the effects of these elements need to be assessed.This paper presents a method for identifying and estimating the driving factors of the rainfall-runoff inconsistency relationship,and quantifies the contribution of meteorological factors,underlying surface conditions,and human activities.This method integrates detrended cross-correlation analysis and detrended partial cross-correlation analysis.The findings demonstrate it has strong application to inconsistent series.In the Wei River basin,human activities,with an average contribution rate of 58.86%,have the greatest influence on the rainfall-runoff relationship,followed by the meteorological factors,while the underlying surface conditions have the least impact.The impact of human activities on the rainfall-runoff relationship in this basin generally takes a continuous growing trend in the time domain,while spatially its degree can be listed in a decreasing order:the upper and middle reaches of the mainstream of the Wei River basin>the Jing River basin>the Beiluo River basin.
作者
李同方
张洪波
赵孝威
杨志芳
张雨柔
冶兆霞
薛超伟
LI Tongfang;ZHANG Hongbo;ZHAO Xiaowei;YANG Zhifang;ZHANG Yurou;YE Zhaoxia;XUE Chaowei(School of Water and Environment,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)
出处
《水力发电学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期35-47,共13页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(51979005)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JC-LHJJ-03)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(300102293201)。
