摘要
目的研究探讨2018—2021年呼和浩特市六种大气污染物(NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、O_(3)-8 h、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5))对儿科呼吸系统日门诊量的影响。方法收集2018—2021年呼和浩特市两所三级以上医院的儿科呼吸系统疾病日门诊量、大气污染物浓度数据及气象资料,对A1期(COVID-19发生前期)与A2期(COVID-19影响期)进行分层分析,使用时间序列quasi Poisson分布的广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM),分别建立单污染物与双污染物模型定量分析大气污染物浓度对儿科呼吸系统日门诊量的影响。结果A1期NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)日均浓度与A2期差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。单污染物模型分析结果显示,A1期NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)日均浓度每增加10μg/m 3造成儿科呼吸系统门诊超额就诊风险分别增加1.55%、4.46%、0.14%、0.18%、0.35%;A2期NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、PM_(10)日均浓度每增加10μg/m 3造成儿科呼吸系统门诊超额就诊风险分别增加8.25%、9.40%、2.84%、0.32%。除O_(3)-8 h外,双污染模型分析NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)与儿科呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论呼和浩特市2018—2021年大气主要污染物日均浓度A1期高于A2期,气态污染物与PM_(10)对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量健康危害效应在A2期高于A1期,NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)日均浓度升高导致儿科呼吸系统疾病日门诊量增加且具有滞后效应。
Objective To investigate the influence of six atmospheric pollutants(NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,O_(3)-8 h,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5))on the daily outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory system diseases in Hohhot,China,from^(2)018 to 2021.Methods Related data of Hohhot btween 2018 and 2021 were collected,including the daily outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory system diseases in two tertiary hospitals,concentration of atmospheric pollutants,and meteorological data,and a stratified analysis was performed for the data of the A1 period(COVID-19 pre-onset)and A2 period(COVID-19 infectious stage).The time-series generalized additive model(GAM)based on quasi Poisson distribution was used to establish single-pollutant and two-pollutant models to quantitatively analyze the health effect of atmospheric pollutant concentration on the daily outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory system diseases.Results There were significant differences in the daily mean concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) between A1 and A2(P<0.05).The single-pollutant model under the optimal lag time showed that A1 period,for every 10μg/m 3 increase in the daily mean concentration of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5),the number of outpatients due to pediatric respiratory system diseases was increased by 1.55%,4.46%,0.14%,0.18%,and 0.35%,respectively.During the A2 period,for every 10μg/m 3 increase in the daily mean concentration of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO and PM_(10),the number of outpatients was increased by 8.25%,9.40%,2.84%and 0.32%,respectively.In addition to O_(3)-8 h,the relationship between NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,PM_(10),PM_(2.5) and the daily outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases was statistically significant by dual-pollution model analysis(P<0.05).Conclusion The average daily concentration of major pollutants in the atmosphere in the A1 period was greater than that of A2 period in Hohhot in 2018—2021,and the pollution effect of gaseous pollutants and PM_(10) on the outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases in the A2 is higher than that of A1 period.The increase in the daily mean concentration of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5) may lead to the increase in the outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory system diseases with lag effects.
作者
李欢
岳宣志
杨升美
高昇
张晨光
韩见弘
孙冰
郭海明
董静
魏娜娜
范耀春
LI Huan;YUE Xuan-zhi;YANG Sheng-mei;GAO Sheng;ZHANG Chen-guang;HAN Jian-hong;SUN Bing;GUO Hai-ming;DONG Jing;WEI Na-na;FAN Yao-chun(Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot 010059,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Comprehensive Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Environmental Monitoring Station Hohhot Branch;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Hohhot Meteorological Bureau)
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2023年第12期901-908,927,共9页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
2022年度内蒙古自治区卫生健康科技计划项目(202201156)。
关键词
大气污染物
广义相加模型
时间序列
门诊量
atmospheric pollutants
generalized additive model
time series
outpatient visits
