摘要
“双碳”背景下,河北省早日实现碳达峰,具有重要意义。在利用碳排放系数法核算2004—2020年河北省碳排放量的基础上,选取相关指标构建STIRPAT模型,并设置了4种情景对2021—2035年河北省碳排放达峰情况进行分析,参数设置充分依据历史数据变化趋势及相关政策要求。研究发现:河北省的碳减排工作仍面临一定压力;人口数量、产业结构、人均GDP、能源结构和城镇化率对碳排放量呈正向影响,影响效果依次降低,碳排放强度的降低对碳排放量的抑制作用并不明显;产业结构优化情景和综合情景下,河北省分别在2030年、2025年实现碳排放达峰。综合研究,以期为河北省碳达峰目标的实现以及落实减排策略提供重要抓手。
Under the background of"double carbon",it is of great significance for Hebei Province to achieve carbon peak as soon as possible.In this paper,based on the carbon emission coefficient method of Hebei Province from 2004 to 2020,relevant indicators were selected to construct STIRPAT model,and four scenarios were set up to analyze the carbon emission peak in Hebei Province from 2021 to 2035.The parameter settings were fully based on the trend of historical data and relevant policy requirements.The results show that the carbon emission reduction work in Hebei Province is still under certain pressure.Population,industrial structure,per capita GDP,energy structure and urbanization rate have positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions,and the effects decrease successively.The reduction of carbon emission intensity has no obvious inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide emissions.Under the industrial structure optimization scenario and the comprehensive scenario,Hebei Province will achieve the peak of carbon emission in 2030 and 2025 respectively.The comprehensive study of this paper aims to provide an important starting point for the realization of the carbon peak target and the implementation of emission reduction strategies in Hebei Province.
作者
都沁军
张攀路
DU Qin-jun;ZHANG Pan-lu(Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)
出处
《河北地质大学学报》
2023年第6期86-92,共7页
Journal of Hebei Geo University
关键词
河北省
碳达峰
情景分析法
减排策略
Hebei Province
carbon peaking
scenario analysis method
mitigation strategy
