摘要
在分析关于光伏电站项目当前政策的基础上,建立了对标燃煤标杆上网电价的光伏发电平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型,并与实物期权方法相结合,考虑项目延迟期权与放弃期权的复合实物期权价值,构建了全面反映项目竞争力价值的扩展平准化度电成本(extended levelized cost of energy,ELCOE)模型,并以某光伏电站项目为例进行了分析。分析结果表明:平价上网机制下,建立的LCOE模型能够直接对标燃煤标杆上网电价,且ELCOE模型考虑了光伏电站项目未来收益的不确定性与管理灵活性,弥补了LCOE法忽略项目未来不确定性价值的不足,避免决策失误。
Based on the analysis of the current policies of PV power station projects,this paper establishes PV power generation levelized cost of energy(LCOE)model that benchmarking coal-fired benchmark electricity price,and combines it with the real option method,considering the compound option value of project delay and abandonment options,constructs an ELCOE model that comprehensively reflects the value of project competitiveness.The case analysis shows that under the grid parity mechanism,the LCOE model in this paper can directly benchmark the coal-fired benchmark electricity price,and the ELCOE model takes into account the uncertainty and management flexibility of the future income of PV power station projects,and makes up for the lack of the LCOE method that ignores the uncertain value of the project in the future,and avoids decisionmaking errors.
作者
刘录清
余云川
高银霞
Liu Luqing;Yu Yunchuan;Gao Yinxia(Jiangsu Keneng Power Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210036,China)
出处
《太阳能》
2023年第10期12-20,共9页
Solar Energy
