摘要
为探究2007年以来中国农业保险由逐步试点到政策升级对农作物种植结构调整的影响,运用渐进式双重差分模型,基于全国31个省(市、自治区)(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区,下同)的面板数据,对农业保险政策渐进式改革与农作物尤其是粮食作物种植面积及结构之间的关系进行研究。结果表明:1)总体而言,政策改革通过提高保费补贴和保障水平增加农户预期收入进而激励其扩大农作物总种植面积和粮食作物种植面积;2)分政策阶段看,具有高保障水平的“三大粮食作物完全成本保险和收入保险政策”在促进种植结构“趋粮化”方面优势明显;3)分作物看,政策显著扩大三大主粮作物的种植面积,缩减薯类作物种植面积;4)分区域看,政策改革仅在粮食主产区出现种植结构“趋粮化”现象。据此,建议继续提升农业保险保障水平,优化保费补贴机制,扩大最新政策试点的覆盖面,给予粮食主产区粮食作物种植更多保险政策支持。
In order to explore the effect of agricultural insurance policy upgrading on the planting structure adjustment of farm crops since 2007,the difference-in-difference model was used to study the relationship between the gradual reform of agricultural insurance policy and the planting area and its structure of farm crops especially grain crops based on the panel data of 31provinces in China(Data do not include those of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan regions,The same below).The results showed that:1)On the whole,policy reform,increasing farmers’expected income by raising premium subsidy and coverage level,encourage farmers to expand sown area of farm crops and grain crops.2)From the perspective of policy stages,the“Three Major Grain Crops Total Cost Insurance and Income Insurance Pilot Policy”with high coverage level have more effect on promoting the“tendency to grain production”in planting structure.3)In terms of farm crops,crop insurance significantly expanded the planting area of the three main food crops and reduced the planting area of tuber crops.4)From the sub-regional perspective,policy reform only in the major grain producing areas reflect the phenomenon of“tendency to grain production”in planting structure.Therefore,this study suggests that we should continue to improve the coverage level of agricultural insurance,optimize the premium subsidy mechanism,expand the coverage of the latest pilot policy,and give more insurance policy support to grain crops in major grain producing areas.
作者
柴智慧
张晓夏
CHAI Zhihui;ZHANG Xiaoxia(College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China)
出处
《中国农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期275-290,共16页
Journal of China Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71873072,7206030114)
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2020MS07022)
内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(BR230303)。
关键词
农业保险
种植结构
粮食生产
双重差分模型
agricultural insurance
planting structure
grain production
difference-in-difference model
