摘要
新能源大规模并网以及极端天气事件频发,造成中国电力供应稳定性下降并引发电力短缺问题,这对我国经济高质量发展产生了负面影响。基于大数据文本挖掘方法,文章首次构建了京津冀地区10个城市的电力短缺指数,并考察其对家庭消费升级的影响。研究结果表明,电力短缺会挤出家庭设备及日用品支出和家庭医疗保健支出,从而对家庭消费升级产生负面影响。电力短缺每增加一单位标准差,家庭消费升级降低1.79%。这种负面影响对农村家庭、低消费支出家庭和高人口规模家庭尤为显著。
The integration of new energy sources into the power grid and the increasing frequency of ex-treme weather events have resulted in the deterioration of power supply stability and power shortages in China,which has a negative impact on China’s high-quality economic development.Using big data text mining meth-ods,this study constructs,for the first time,a power shortage index for ten cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and examines its impact on household consumption upgrading.The research findings reveal that power shortages tend to crowd out expenditures on household appliances,daily necessities,and healthcare,thereby exerting a negative influence on household consumption upgrading.Specifically,for each additional unit of standard deviation in power shortages,household consumption upgrading decreases by 1.79%.This adverse effect is particularly pronounced in rural areas,low income households,and households with larger population sizes.
作者
俞剑
赵晨
刘鹏
YU Jian;ZHAO Chen;LIU Peng(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《浙江师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第5期81-94,共14页
Journal of Zhejiang Normal University(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“电力短缺对企业能源转型的影响机制及效应研究”(72373172)
北京市社会科学基金一般项目“居民财务杠杆升高对北京市家庭消费增长及结构升级的影响”(19LJB001)。
关键词
电力短缺
家庭消费
消费升级
京津冀地区
指数构建
power shortages
household consumption
consumption upgrading
the Beijing-Tianjin-He-bei region
index construction
