摘要
稻瘟病是水稻上的一种毁灭性病害,利用科学的模型函数对稻瘟病发生流行程度进行预测预报是稻瘟病防控的有效方式。以降雨天数、降雨量、温度、稻瘟病菌致病力、无毒基因为变量参数,以稻瘟病发生指数为因变量,建立江西稻区稻瘟病发生流行程度判别模型函数。结果表明,稻瘟病发生指数与降雨天数、降雨量以及稻瘟病菌致病力有显著正相关性,与稻瘟病菌无毒基因频率、温度表现为显著负相关性;构建的预测函数模型对稻瘟病的发生级别预测回代检验正确判别率较高(80%以上),并且判别结果不会出现指数越级滑动。可将该方法作为水稻稻瘟病预测预报的参考依据,以指导水稻安全生产。
Rice blast is a destructive disease of rice.Forecasting the epidemics of rice blast by using scientific model function is an effective way to prevent and control rice blast.Using the rainfall days,rainfall amount,temperature,pathogenicity of Magnaporthe oryzae,and avirulence gene as variables and the occurrence index of rice blast disease as the dependent variable,a model function for discriminating the epidemic of rice blast disease in Jiangxi Province was established.The results showed that the occurrence index of rice blast was positively correlated with the rainfall days,rainfall amount and the pathogenicity of M.oryzae,while the avirulence gene frequency and temperature were negatively correlated.The prediction function model had a high correct discrimination rate(above 80%)for the occurrence grade of rice blast,and the discrimination result did not show the exponential sliding.Therefore,this model function could be used as a method for the prediction of rice blast disease to guide the safe production of rice.
作者
兰波
阴长发
陈建
施伟韬
杨爱萍
张晓阳
况虹敏
肖慧
李湘民
杨迎青
LAN Bo;YIN Changfa;CHEN Jian;SHI Weitao;YANG Aiping;ZHANG Xiaoyang;KUANG Hongmin;XIAO Hui;LI Xiangmin;YANG Yingqing(Institute of Plant Protection,Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanchang 330200;Jiangxi Province Station of Plant Protection and Quarantine,Nanchang 330096;Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center,Nanchang 330096;Jiujiang Agricultural Technology Extension Centre,Jiujiang,Jiangxi 332000;Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanggao County,Shanggao,Jiangxi 336400;Jiantou Town Public Service Centre of Wan’an County,Wan’an,Jiangxi 343811)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2023年第25期116-121,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
江西省重点研发计划项目“基于菌群毒性结构的江西省水稻稻瘟病绿色防控技术研究与应用”(20202BBFL63001)
江西现代农业科研协同创新专项“优质稻、蔬菜主要病虫害绿色防控及农药减量技术研究”(JXXTCX201901)
江西现代农业科研协同创新专项“抗瘟品系Pi-zt介导的不同稻瘟病菌诱导下转录组分析”(JXXTCXBSJJ202119)。
关键词
水稻稻瘟病
判别分析
预测模型
气象因子
菌群毒性
rice blast
discriminant analysis
prediction model
meteorological factor
virulence of Magnaporthe oryzae
