摘要
This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020,using the fraction skill score(FSS)of the neighborhood spatial verification method.The results revealed that,among the 24-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 3 km,the FSS for the 0.1 mm precipitation threshold increased linearly with the lead time from 3 to 1 hour,while there was no significant improvement in other lead times.For the 5 mm precipitation threshold,the forecast skill was highest for the latest 1-hour lead time,while the FSS showed slight variation between lead times of 24 hours and 8 hours.The FSS for 10 mm and 20 mm precipitation thresholds were similar to that of 5 mm,with the difference that the best score occurred at the 2-hour lead time.Among the 6-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 1 km,the forecasts of the latest 1-hour lead time were the best choices for four precipitation thresholds.When comparing CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km,it was found that CMA-GD 3 km had better skill for forecasts of 0.1 mm and 5 mm precipitation at 2-hour and 1-hour lead times,while CMA-GD 1 km had better skill for all other forecasts,including the forecast of 20 mm precipitation nearly all lead hours(including 3-to 6-hour,and 1-hour lead times).The results suggest that the increased resolution of the model may be beneficial for precipitation forecasts in South China,especially for short-duration heavy precipitation over a longer lead hours.However,the limited sample size of this study calls for further evaluation using more cases to validate the results′generality.
作者
张兰
任鹏飞
徐道生
李怀宇
张宇飞
ZHANG Lan;REN Peng-fei;XU Dao-sheng;LI Huai-yu;ZHANG Yu-fei(Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 511430 China;Guangdong Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080 China;Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,Guangzhou 510640 China;Guangzhou Meteorological Public Service Center,Guangzhou 511430 China)
基金
China Meteorological Administration Innovation Development Special Project(CXFZ2022J006)
Guangzhou Science and Technology Plan Project(202103000030)
China Meteorological Administration Review and Summary Special Project(FPZJ2023-091)
Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Planning Project of China(202103000030)。
