摘要
战略定位是主权国家在权力博弈中对他国与本国间地位、角色关系的认知。冷战结束后,美国对欧洲的同盟定位出现了“附庸—伙伴”的摇摆区间。历史与现实证明,美国对欧战略定位及其调整主要取决于美国削弱和控制欧洲的可行性,具体受到美国相对于欧洲的硬实力优势、俄罗斯向西塑造地缘政治环境的力度、欧洲团结与分裂的性质以及中国的发展等因素影响。在俄乌冲突导致俄欧关系高度恶化的情况下,美国倾向于将欧洲定位为受控附庸,并可能在下一阶段制定和实施巩固优势、弱俄控欧、强化北约、联欧制华等政策。从这些政策的长期效果来看,美国霸权基础或将受损,欧洲大国提升战略自主的倾向或将加强,俄中两国将继续保持不结盟的战略定力,全球发展与合作可能放缓乃至倒退。
Strategic positioning is the understanding by a sovereign state of its own status and role versus the other countries in the power game.After the end of the Cold War,the United States’positioning towards its European alliances wavers within the range of“vassal-partner”for many reasons.History and reality have proved that the United States’strategic positioning towards Europe and its policy adjustment mainly depend on the ability and feasibility of the United States to undermine and control Europe,which is specifically affected by factors such as the hard power advantage of the United States over Europe,Russia’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment to the west,the nature of European unity and division,and China’s development.Under the circumstance where the Russia-Ukraine conflict has badly worsened the Russia-EU relations,the United States tends to position Europe as a controlled vassal,and may formulate and implement policies such as consolidating superiority,weakening Russia and controlling Europe,strengthening the NATO,and uniting Europe to coerce China in the next stage.However,in the long term,such policies will lead to the damage of the hegemonic foundation of the United States,the European powers may strengthen their efforts to promote strategic autonomy,Russia and China will continue to maintain their non-aligned strategic focus,and global development and cooperation may slow down or even regress.
出处
《欧洲研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期38-64,I0003,共28页
Chinese Journal of European Studies
