摘要
提升PPP社会资本参与度,对激发有效投资具有重要意义。考虑到影响社会资本参与PPP项目因素的多重复杂性,以CPPPC库14 038个PPP项目为研究对象,选取项目本身、地方政府、市场环境、宏观经济四个维度61个特征变量,构建基于集成学习的PPP项目社会资本参与度预测模型,并探究不同特征组合对社会资本参与度预测性能的影响。实验结果表明:经蜻蜓算法完成特征降维有效提升了模型预测准确性,ADASYN+XGBoost模型的预测性能最佳;从特征组合来看,项目本身、地方政府以及宏观经济三种特征组合下的预测性能优于其他特征组合,其中项目本身对社会资本参与PPP的影响最为显著,其次是地方政府,市场环境的加入反而会降低除项目本身外其他特征组合下的模型准确性。地方政府应重点从提高财政透明性、提升清廉程度、优化公私合作机制等方面吸引社会资本积极投资。
Enhancing the participation of PPP social capital is of great significance to stimulate effective investment.Select 61 characteristic variables in four dimensions of the project itself,local government,market environment,and macroeconomics,build a prediction model of social capital PPP participation based on an ensemble learning algorithm,and explore the influence mechanism of different feature combinations on social capital participation in PPP.The research results show that:1) Dragonfly algorithm effectively improving the accuracy of the prediction models with feature dimensionality reduction.2)The prediction model based on ADASYN+XGBoost achieves the best performance under the combination of the characteristics of the project itself,local government and macroeconomics.3)Among them,the project itself has the most significant impact on social capital participation in PPP,followed by local government;the addition of market environment will reduce the accuracy of the model under other characteristic combinations except the project itself;local governments should focus on attracting active investment from social capital by improving fiscal transparency,improving integrity,and optimizing public-private cooperation mechanisms.
作者
张经阳
沈俊鑫
李晓颖
沈冰亮
ZHANG Jingyang;SHEN Junxin;LI Xiaoying;SHEN Bingliang(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Faculty of Economics and Management,BeiBu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535000,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期79-91,共13页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71964018)
云南省省院省校合作项目(SYSX201911)
云南产业发展研究项目(2022Z06)。
