摘要
为了降低电网业务风险,需要对电力企业的业务风险进行预测,为此提出基于风险点算法模型的业务风险智能预测方法研究。基于风险点算法识别业务风险点,简化业务风险预测流程;从结构风险、行业业务风险、集团业务风险三个维度建立业务风险评估指标体系;基于AHP初步确定指标权重,创新性地利用熵值法改进权重数值,建立业务风险评估模型;根据灰色预测理论估计未来业务风险水平,确定业务风险预测规则,从而完成业务风险的智能预测。测试数据显示:应用提出方法获得的业务风险点识别成功率达到96%,业务风险水平预测误差率最小为1.5%,能够对电网业务风险进行准确预测。
In order to reduce the risk of power grid business,it is necessary to predict the business risk of power enterprises.Identify business risk points based on risk point algorithm to simplify business risk prediction process;Establish a business risk assessment indicator system from three dimensions of structural risk,industry business risk and group business risk;Based on AHP,the index weight is preliminarily determined,and the entropy method is innovatively used to improve the weight value,and the business risk assessment model is established;According to the grey prediction theory,the future business risk level is estimated,and the business risk prediction rules are determined to complete the intelligent prediction of business risk.The test data shows that the success rate of business risk point identification obtained by applying the proposed method reaches 96%,and the minimum prediction error rate of business risk level is 1.5%,which can accurately predict the power grid business risk.
作者
王炫
王世杰
刘扬
李欣
致远
WANG Xuan;WANG Shijie;LIU yang;LI xin;ZHI yuan(State Grid Corporation of China Northwest Branch Dispatching control center,Xi’an,710048,China)
出处
《自动化与仪器仪表》
2023年第7期118-121,125,共5页
Automation & Instrumentation
基金
国网西北分部调控分中心-SG-TMS2.0西北电力通信网全景化监视系统一期建设项目(26993220001M)。
关键词
企业业务
风险预测
评估指标
业务风险
预测信息
风险点识别
enterprise business
risk warning
evaluation indicators
business risk
early warning information
risk point identi-fication
