摘要
利用宁夏中南部8县(区)国家站逐日气温、降水气象数据,历年马铃薯单产量、马铃薯发育期、土壤相对湿度数据。应用正态分布检验得到宁夏马铃薯主产区适宜播种期土壤相对湿度指标在53.5%~71.2%之间;应用有效积温及Logistic模型方法得到多年全生育期有效积温1790℃·d,利用反推方法,得到4月1日开始的效积温与1790℃·d的差值,在1300~1600℃·d、1100~1300℃·d分别作为马铃薯最适宜播种期,最迟播种积温指标;通过历史数据和2021~2022年预测检验,预报效果较好;在80%气候保证率下,利用该模型,科学预测马铃薯适宜播种期,保证较高出苗率,能有效增加产量,提高商品薯率。
This study utilized daily meteorological data on temperature and precipitation from eight national weather stations in the central and southern regions of Ningxia.Historical data on potato yield,potato growth stages,and soil relative humidity were incorporated.Through a thorough analysis,the suitable range of soil relative humidity for the primary potato-producing areas in Ningxia was determined to be between 53.5%and 71.2%using a normal distribution test.The effective accumulated temperature and the Logistic model were used to calculate the accumulated temperature requirement for the entire growth period,resulting in 1790℃·d.A backward calculation method was utilized to determine the difference between the effective accumulated temperature from April 1st and 1790℃·d.Based on this,the study identified the most suitable planting period for potatoes to be within the ranges of 1300~1600℃·d and the latest planting period to be within 1100~1300℃·d.The model's predictive performance was validated using historical data and forecasts for the period of 2021~2022,demonstrating satisfactory results.By employing this model with an 80%climate assurance rate,the study provides a scientific prediction of the optimal planting period for potatoes.High emergence rates were ensured the yield was increase,and marketable potato production was improwed.
作者
吴志岐
陈利伟
刘缗
WU Zhiqi;CHENliwei;LIU Ming(Key Laboratory for monitoring,early warning and risk management of Agrometeorological Disasters with Chinese characteristics in arid regions,Yinchuan 750002;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Xiji County Meteorological Bureau,Guyuan Ningxia 756200;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Longde County Meteorological Bureau,Guyuan Ningxia 756300;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Haiyuan County Meteorological Bureau,ZHongwei Ningxia 755000)
出处
《陕西农业科学》
2023年第7期26-30,共5页
Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
宁夏回族自治区科技惠民专项“宁夏中南部山区马铃薯全程气象保障服务与灾害预警技术应用示范”(2018CMG03022)。
关键词
气候保证率
宁夏
马铃薯
开始适宜播种期
有效积温
Climate assurance rate
Ningxia
Potatoes
Optimal planting period
Effective accumulated temperature
