摘要
“碳达峰”和“碳中和”是中国应对全球气候变暖的庄严承诺,连云港作为沿海型地级城市,为实现这一目标,需要结合当地实际社会发展情况,建立碳排放影响因素模型并对影响因素进行定量分析。利用IPCC排放因子法对连云港地区2007~2019年二氧化碳排放量进行实际测算,定性分析出影响连云港地区碳排放的主要因素,进而通过扩展STIRPAT模型及岭回归法对连云港地区碳排放影响因素进行定量分析。定量分析研究结果表明,连云港地区常住人口总数、地区人均生产总值、地区生产总值、城市化率、能源强度每增加1%,连云港地区的碳排放量分别增加2.3884%、0.2590%、0.0282%、0.8261%、-0.1075%。因此,通过制定有针对性的人口政策、优化产业结构对经济发展的贡献、秉承人与自然和谐相处的城市化率提升策略等,对连云港地区及地域特性相近的其他地级市早日实现“双碳”目标具有重要的指导意义。
"Carbon peak"and"carbon neutral"are China's solemn commitments to cope with global warming,Lianyungang,as a coastal prefecture-level city,in order to achieve the goal,needs to establish a mathematical model of the factors that affect carbon emissions and to quantitatively analyze the factors that affect carbon emissions based on the actual social development of the region.The IPCC emission factor method was adopted to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions in Lianyungang area from 2007 to 2019,and the dominant factors of Lianyungang's carbon emissions were qualitatively analyzed.Then,an extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis method were used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Lianyungang area.The quantitative analysis results showed that for every 1%increase in permanent resident population,per capita production value,Gross Domestic Product,urbanization and energy intensity will lead to 2.3884%,0.2590%,0.0282%,0.8261%and-0.1075%increase of the carbon emission in Lianyungang city,respectively.Therefore,it has important guiding significance for Lianyungang and other cities with similar geographical characteristics to achieve"carbon peak"and"carbon neutral"by formulating targeted population policies,optimizing the contribution of industrial structure to economicdevelopment and adhering to the strategy of urbanization rate improvement in harmony between human and nature.
作者
韩遇春
田赢
胡立聪
赵健
卢闻州
HAN Yu-chun;TIAN Ying;HU Li-cong;ZHAO Jian;LU Wen-zhou(State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power CO.,Ltd.Lianyungang Power Supply Company,Lianyungang,Jiangsu 222000,China;School of Internet of Things Engineering,Jiangnan University,Wuxi,Jiangsu 214122,China)
出处
《四川环境》
2023年第4期74-80,共7页
Sichuan Environment
基金
国网江苏省电力有限公司连云港供电分公司2021年业务研究项目(20211260)。
关键词
碳达峰
碳排放
STIRPAT模型
岭回归
连云港
定量分析
Carbon peaking
carbon emissions
STIRPAT model
ridge regression
Lianyungang City
quantitative analysis
