摘要
[目的]阐明河南省旱涝急转灾害的时空演变规律及趋势,为河南省旱涝急转事件的定量识别、时空演变及灾害风险评估提供依据。[方法]利用河南省17个国家基准气象台站1960—2018年逐日降水、气温资料,采用月尺度短周期旱涝急转指数,对河南省旱涝急转时空演变进行了多尺度、系统性地分析。[结果](1)旱涝急转指数绝对值大于1.0可作为旱涝急转事件的识别阈值,绝对值越大,旱涝急转强度越大。(2)旱涝急转事件年际波动变化显著,具有明显阶段性特点。轻度旱转涝事件发生频次略呈增多趋势,中度旱转涝事件发生频次趋势性不明显,其他旱涝急转事件则略呈减少趋势,但旱转涝与涝转旱事件强度分别以0.011/a,0.021/a的线性倾向率略呈增强趋势,且强度在未来将会持续增大。(3)旱涝急转事件及其强度变化存在15.0 a的第一主周期与3.0 a的第二周期,但同一周期下旱转涝与涝转旱两类事件呈显著反相变化。(4)旱涝急转事件多发区及其强度较大区域主要集中于豫东、豫南平原区以及豫西山区,其中豫东、豫南平原区受地理、生态因素影响致灾风险较大。(5)前期大气环流、太阳黑子活动是旱涝急转现象预测预警的重要信号。[结论]河南省旱转涝和涝转旱均频发,具显著周期性,且强度在未来将会持续增大,豫东、豫南平原区致灾风险大。
[Objective]This article aims to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and trends of sudden changes in drought and flood disasters in Henan Province,and then to provide basis for quantitative identification,temporal and spatial evolution and disaster risk assessment of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Henan Province.[Methods]Based on daily precipitation and temperature data of 17 national benchmark meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1960 to 2018,this study carried out multi-scale and systematic analysis on spatiotemporal variation of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Henan Province in the past 59 years by using monthly short-period drought-flood abrupt alternation index.[Results](1)The absolute value of drought-flood abrupt alternation index greater than 1.0 can be used as the identification threshold of drought-flood abrupt alternation events.The greater the absolute value is,the greater the intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation is.(2)In the past 59 years,the interannual fluctuation of drought-flood abrupt alternation events had changed significantly,with obvious stage characteristics.The frequency of mild sharp turn events showed a slightly increasing trend,the frequency of moderate events showed no obvious trend,and other events showed a slightly decreasing trend.However,the intensity of drought-to-flood and flood-to-drought events increased slightly with the linear tendency rates of 0.011/a and 0.021/a,respectively,and the sharp turn intensity will continue to increase in the future.(3)There were the first main period of 15.0 a and the second period of 3.0 a in the drought-flood abrupt alternation events and their intensity.However,under the same cycle,the drought-to-flood events and the flood-to-drought events showed significant inverse changes.(4)The areas with high frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events mainly concentrated in the plain areas of eastern and southern Henan and the mountainous areas of western Henan.Among them,the eastern and southern plains of Henan had a greater hazard risk affected by geographical and ecological factors.(5)The early atmospheric circulation and sunspot activity are important signals for the prediction and early warning of drought-flood abrupt alternation.[Conclusion]Drought-to-flood and flood-to-drought are frequent in Henan Province,with obvious periodicity,and the intensity will continue to increase in the future.The disaster risk is high in the plain areas of eastern and southern Henan.
作者
楚纯洁
张小磊
周金风
CHU Chunjie;ZHANG Xiaolei;ZHOU Jinfeng(College of Tourism and Planning,Pingdingshan University,Pingdingshan,Henan 467000,China;Institute of Geography,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期275-285,共11页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目(202102310300)
平顶山学院高层次人才资助项目(PXY-BSQD-2017004)。
关键词
旱涝急转
时空演变
河南省
drought-flood abrupt alternation
spatiotemporal variation
Henan Province
