摘要
地震的孕育、发震机制是一个复杂的非线性过程,分形理论描述这一过程具有较大的理论优势。本文基于分形理论,运用功率谱、分形维数等手段确定了湖北及周边地区地震活动分形特征,利用R/S分析发现震级hurst指数的趋势性下降代表着断裂孕震系统稳定性被破坏,与ML4.5级以上地震的发生存在关联,可以作为地震活动性中长期预测的一个指标,认为未来一段时间湖北及周边地区发生ML4.5级以上地震的危险性增强。
The preparation and occurring mechanism of earthquakes is a complex nonlinear process which fractal theory has great theoretical advantages in describing and analyzing.In this paper,some methods based on fractal theory,such as power spectrum,fractal dimension,are used to determine that the seismicity in Hubei Province and its surrounding areas can be characterized as a fractal system.And then,the long-term correlation of earthquake frequency is demonstrated via R/S analysis,and surprisingly discover the relevance between the downtrend of the magnitude hurst index and earthquakes(≥ML4.5).Finally,it is predicted that Hubei and surrounding areas will be at the increasing risk of earthquakes(≥ML4.5),and some works related to seismic fortification should be strengthened.
作者
冷崇标
张辉
曾智辉
安一凡
Leng Chongbiao;Zhang Hui;Zeng Zhihui;An Yifan(Institute of Seismology,CEA,Wuhan,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Geodesy,CEA,Wuhan,China;Yichang Earthquake Monitoring Central Station,Yichang,China)
出处
《科学技术创新》
2023年第14期89-92,共4页
Scientific and Technological Innovation
基金
湖北省地震局基础科研基金项目(课题批准号:No.2022HBJJ038)。
