摘要
目的 构建学龄前儿童发生超重肥胖的预测模型。方法 收集2021年10-12月乌鲁木齐市10所幼儿园1 897名儿童的一般资料、身体活动及体格测量,利用lasso回归和多因素logistic回归选择与儿童超重肥胖相关的变量构建列线图预测模型,应用受试者工作特征曲线下面积、校正曲线和决策曲线分析对模型的鉴别能力、准确性和临床实用性进行评估。结果 学龄前儿童超重肥胖检出率为31.21%(592名),经logistic回归分析发现,性别、年龄、父亲体重指数、母亲孕前体重指数、身体活动、出生体重、照护人对儿童体重认知、妊娠期是否患糖尿病、分娩方式是预测学龄前儿童发生超重肥胖的危险因素(P<0.05),列线图预测模型曲线下面积为0.831,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示出较好的拟合度(P>0.05)。决策曲线分析,当阈值概率为0.10~0.92,使用列线图预测模型预测学龄前儿童超重肥胖风险的净收益更高。结论 本研究构建并验证列线图预测模型,有助于早期识别学龄前儿童发生超重肥胖的风险。
Objective To construct a prediction model for the occurrence of overweight and obesity in preschool children.Methods We collected the general data,physical activities and physical measurements of 1,897 children from 10 kindergartens in Urumqi City from October to December,2021.Lasso regression and multivariable logistic regression were used to select variables related to overweight and obesity in the children to construct a nomogram predictive model.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluating the identification ability,accuracy and clinical applicability of the model.Results The detection rate of overweight and obesity in the preschool children was 31.21%(592/1,897).Logistic regression analysis showed that gender,age,paternal body mass index,maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index,physical activity,birth weight,caregivers’perception of children’s body weight,having or having no diabetes during pregnancy,mode of delivery were risk factors for predicting the occurrence of overweight and obesity in the preschool children(P<0.05).The area under the curve of the nomogram for identifying overweight and obesity in the preschool children was 0.831.The nomogram was found with a high goodness of fit by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P>0.05).Decision curve analysis revealed that when the threshold probabilities were between 0.10 and 0.92,using the nomogram resulted in higher net benefit of predicting the risk of overweight and obesity in the preschool children.Conclusion We established and verified a nomogram in this study,which may be helpful for early identification of risk of overweight and obesity in the preschoolers.
作者
胡宁宁
李婉君
杨静
李玉凤
王仁媛
林素兰
HU Ning-ning;LI Wan-jun;YANG Jing;LI Yu-feng;WANG Ren-yuan;LIN Su-lan(School of Nursing,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011,China)
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2023年第5期576-580,共5页
Practical Preventive Medicine
