摘要
长三角地区低碳经济的发展是我国落实“双碳”目标的重要环节。本文以长三角工业行业为研究对象,核算了2006~2020年长三角地区工业行业碳排放量,基于LMDI因素分解模型定量分析了能源结构效应、能源强度效应、经济发展效应及人口规模效应对碳排放量变化的影响,同时结合Tapio脱钩模型进一步分析了长三角地区工业行业碳排放脱钩效应和分解因素脱钩弹性。结果表明:研究期内碳排放量呈先上升后下降的变化趋势;长三角地区经济发展效应和人口规模效应对工业碳排放量的增加起驱动作用,能源强度效应和能源结构效应有效抑制了区域工业碳排放量的增长;长三角地区工业能源碳排放脱钩主要经历了弱脱钩、强脱钩两个阶段,且脱钩水平逐渐提高;从影响因素看,能源结构效应、能源强度效应对脱钩水平有促进作用,而经济发展效应、人口规模效应对脱钩水平起抑制作用。在经济与社会发展的战略目标下,提出推动长三角工业低碳发展的对策,以实现长三角三省一市乃至中国其他地区经济与环境的绿色可持续性发展。
The development of low-carbon economy in the Yangtze River Delta is an important part of China's implementation of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper takes the industrial sector of the Yangtze River Delta as the research object,accounts for the carbon emissions of the industrial sector in the Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2020,and quantitatively analyzes the effects of energy structure effect,energy intensity effect,economic development effect and population size effect on the change of carbon emissions based on the LMDI factor decomposition model,and further analyzes the decoupling effect and the elasticity of decoupling of carbon emissions of the industrial sector in the Yangtze River Delta by combining with the Tapio decoupling model.The decoupling elasticity of decomposition factors was further analyzed.The results show that:the carbon emissions show a trend of increasing and then decreasing during the study period;the economic development effect and population size effect in the Yangtze River Delta region drive the increase of industrial carbon emissions,while the energy intensity effect and energy structure effect effectively suppress the growth of industrial carbon emissions in the region;the decoupling of industrial energy carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta mainly goes through two stages of weak decoupling and strong decoupling,and the decoupling level gradually increases;from the perspective of influencing factors,the energy structure effect and energy intensity effect have an impact on the decoupling level.The decoupling level is promoted by the energy structure effect and energy intensity effect,while the decoupling level is inhibited by the economic development effect and population size effect.Under the strategic objectives of economic and social development,countermeasures are proposed to promote the low-carbon industrial development of the Yangtze River Delta in order to achieve green and sustainable economic and environmental development in the three provinces and one city of the Yangtze River Delta and even other regions of China.
作者
关子娴
王梦瑶
姜清荣
胡纯
Guan Zixian;Wang Mengyao;Jiang Qingrong;Hu Chun(School of Chemistry and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430023,China)
出处
《广东化工》
CAS
2023年第10期150-152,149,共4页
Guangdong Chemical Industry
基金
湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(15Q119)。
关键词
长三角地区
工业碳排放
LMDI模型
Tapio脱钩
影响因素
the Yangtze River Delta
industrial carbon emissions
LMDI model
Tapio decoupling
influencing factors
