摘要
就业是最大的民生。本文纳入功能分工的新视角,采用全球价值链生产率修正全球价值链就业测度指标,利用世界投入产出数据库提供的2000—2014年世界投入产出表序列和相匹配的劳动力职业就业数据库,从“总量”和“增量”两个维度,考察中国嵌入双循环从事不同功能活动类型的全球价值链就业变化,并采用构建的链式结构分解分析技术探究其变化背后的驱动因素。实证分析结果显示:中国基本形成“内需为主、外需赋能”双轮驱动的就业增长模式,且嵌入内(外)循环对中国市场(制造)活动的全球价值链就业带动作用更强,而对总部经济活动的就业带动有限。结构分解结果显示:生产侧方面,劳动生产率提升是抑制中国各类功能就业的最重要因素,尤其是制造类和市场类就业,但这种负向作用被生产结构的本地化扩张部分弥补;需求侧方面,内循环规模扩张是拉动中国各类全球价值链功能性就业增长的主引擎,而外循环嵌入虽然也推动实现一定程度的就业增长,但明显弱于内循环。本文对于理解双循环嵌入下的中国就业功能格局及其驱动因素,以及未来如何有效实现更充分更高质量的就业具有参考价值。
Employment is the key significance of livelihood.Incorporating a new perspective from functional specialization,this paper modifies the measurement of global value chains(GVCs)employment by introducing GVCs productivity,and employs the World Input-Output Database from 2000 to 2014 together with the matched Labor Occupations Database,to investigate the fluctuation of China's GVCs employment engaging in different types of functional activities embedded in dual circulation from two dimensions of"total amount"and"increment",and further adopts the chaining structural decomposition analysis(SDA)technique to delve into the driving factors behind the changes.The empirical results show that China has basically formed a two-wheel driven employment growth mode that"domestic demand is primary and foreign demand empowers",in which internal(external)circulation has a stronger driving effect on China's GVCs employment engaging in marketing(manufacturing)activities,while the positive effect on employment engaging in headquarters activities is limited.The SDA results show that on the production side,labor productivity improvement is the most important factor to restrain all kinds of functional employment in China,especially that engaging in manufacturing and marketing activities.However,this negative effect is partially compensated by the localized expansion of production structure.On the demand side,the scale expansion of internal circulation is the Imain engine driving the growth of all kinds of GVCs functional employment in China.Meanwhile,external circulation also promotes the growth of employment,but the effect is obviously weaker than that of internal circulation.This paper sheds light on the functional pattern and the driving factors of China's GVCs employment embedded in dual circulation,and also on how to effectively achieve fuller and higher-quality employment in the future.
作者
牛猛
王振国
张亚斌
NIU Meng;WANG Zhenguo;ZHANG Yabin
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期89-105,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球价值链背景下中美新型大国贸易关系与贸易利益研究”(18ZDA068)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国嵌入全球价值链的分工格局、功能升级效应与政策优化研究”(72203058)
中国博士后科学基金第15批特别资助(站中)“数字经济时代下ICT影响中国功能性就业的三维结构分析:形成机制、变动机制与管理策略”(2022T150204)
中国博士后科学基金第70批面上资助“全球价值链分工下中国出口功能升级:测度、实证及路径优化研究”(2021M701164)。
关键词
国内(外)需求
全球价值链就业
功能分工
链式结构分解分析
Domestic(Foreign)Demand
Global Value Chains Employment
Functional Specialization
Chaining Structural Decomposition Analysis
