摘要
伴随着CPTPP、RCEP和IPEF等多边自贸协议和经济合作框架的出现,亚太区域经济秩序呈现出分裂趋势进一步扩大、敛合空间进一步缩小的双重态势。敛合趋势主要表现在价值链的本地化与近岸化、自由贸易协定规则的整合与重组以及经济发展目标的部分趋同;分裂趋势则主要表现在区域经济规则标准与主导权之争、供应链的安全化与“去中国化”,以及区域本土经济治理主体的弱化。亚太区域经济秩序敛合与分裂的消长态势将对地区国家产生复杂的影响,包括重构以中美为核心的地缘政治主体的互动方式;通过贸易转移效应重塑地缘经济收益分配;促使区域国家将关键行业、数据安全以及产业链在内的经济议题“安全化”;加剧区域经济弱国“失语化”现象。亚太区域经济秩序分裂与敛合的双重趋势将长期伴随中国与区域国家之间的经济合作。面对区域经济秩序的复杂演变,中国可采取经济多边主义取向、尊重东盟中心架构、维护区域治理理念和寻求合作契机四种路径推进区域经济秩序敛合,为中国经略周边、重塑周边、引领周边乃至构建周边命运共同体创造和平、稳定、有序的发展环境。
With the emergence of multilateral free trade agreements and economic cooperation frameworks such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP),the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity(IPEF),the Asia Pacific region has witnessed a growing expansion of fragmentation and convergence within the economic order.The convergence refers to localizing and nearshoring value chain,integrating and rearranging rules of free trade agreements and having convergence of economic development goals.The fragmentation is mainly manifested in the competition between regional economic rules and dominance,between securitization and delocalization of the supply chain,and the weakening of the main actors of local economic governance.The ebb and flow of convergence and fragmentation of the economic order in the Asia Pacific region will have a complex impact on the countries in the region.This reconstructs the interaction of geopolitical subjects with China and the United States,reshapes the distribution of geo-economic benefits through trade transfer effect,promotes regional countries to secure economic interests including key industries,data security and industrial chains and marginalizes the discursive power of weak economies in the region.The fragmentation and convergence around the economic order in the Asia Pacific region will witness the eco-nomic cooperation between China and regional countries for a long time.Having seen the complex evolution of the regional economic order,China can enhance economic multilateralism,raise the central structure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),maintain the concept of regional governance and seek opportunities for cooperation.This offers an opportunity for creating a peaceful,stable and orderly environment for China to manage,reshape,lead and even build a community for a shared future with neigh-boring countries.
作者
罗会琳
张励
LUO Huilin;ZHANG Li(China Foreign Affairs University,Beijing 10037,China;Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《太平洋学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期68-80,共13页
Pacific Journal
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“澜湄国家命运共同体构建视阈下的水冲突新态势与中国方略研究”(18CGJ016)
“2022年复旦大学咨政研究支持计划”的阶段性研究成果。
