摘要
房市政策松绑虽有助于防范行业所引致的系统性风险,但也存在进一步强化房价对创新创业(简称双创)抑制效应的可能。如何统筹“稳增长”和“促转型”两大目标是当前发展所面临的挑战。基于2003—2018年中国253个地级市数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和倾向匹配双重差分法(PSM-DID),置于内循环战略背景下考察房价影响双创的需求侧机制。结果表明:区域房价对双创的影响存在先促进后抑制的倒U型特征。前者的提升通过促进地方政府财政收入和城市固定资产投资的增加进而正向影响双创发展,然而这一影响随着限购政策的实施和房价的高企逐渐式微。并且房价对居民消费的抑制进一步强化了房价的负面效应。限购政策虽然通过投资端结构的改善缓解了房价对双创发展的负向影响,但并没有释放居民消费潜力这一作用,还会导致财政收入紧缩,给政府收支平衡和地方经济增长带来压力。因此,后疫情时代亟须制定相关政策以统筹投资、消费和地方财政,稳定房地产行业发展,激发区域双创活力。
Although the loosening of housing policy can help prevent systemic risks caused by the industry,it is also possible to further strengthen the inhibiting effect of housing price innovation and entrepreneurship.How to coordinate the two major goals of“stabilizing growth”and“promoting transformation”is the challenge faced by current development.Based on the data of 253 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper adopts the two-stage least square method(2SLS)and propensity score matching-differences in differences(PSM-DID)to investigate the demand-side mechanism of housing price affecting innovation and entrepreneurship under the background of internal circulation.The results show that the impact of regional housing price on innovation and entrepreneurship had an inverted U-shaped feature of first promoting and then inhibiting.The improvement of the former had a positive impact on the development of innovation and entrepreneurship by promoting the increase of local government revenue and urban fixed asset investment.However,this impact gradually declined with the implementation of the purchase restriction policy and the high housing price.Moreover,the inhibition of housing price on residents’consumption further strengthened the negative effect of housing price.Although the purchase restriction policy alleviated the negative impact of housing price on the development of innovation and entrepreneurship through the improvement of the investment-side structure,it did not release the potential of residents’consumption.It also led to the contraction of fiscal revenue,which brought pressure on the balance of government revenue and expenditure and local economic growth.Therefore,in the post-pandemic period,it is urgent to formulate relevant policies to coordinate investment,consumption and local finance,stabilize the development of the real estate industry,and stimulate the vitality of regional innovation and entrepreneurship.
作者
杨浩东
王高峰
YANG Hao-dong;WANG Gao-feng(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,Anhui 230026)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2023年第4期1-12,共12页
基金
合肥市哲学社会科学青年项目“合肥市国家智慧城市建设对高新区企业发展影响评估”(编号:HFSKQN202223)。
关键词
内循环
需求侧
房价
创新创业
internal circulation
demand side
housing price
innovation and entrepreneurship
