摘要
以中国286个主要地级市为研究区域,基于2003—2016年中国地级市大气PM_(2.5)质量浓度栅格数据及各地级市社会经济数据,运用空间自相关和空间面板杜宾模型,揭示了中国地级市PM_(2.5)质量浓度的时空格局与影响因素。研究显示:①中国PM_(2.5)污染在时序演化上呈“M”型波动态势,在空间分布上以胡焕庸线为界呈现出“东高西低”的集聚型格局;②中国地级市PM_(2.5)污染在空间效应上呈现出显著的正相关性,表明区域间大气污染存在交互影响;③人口密度与非农产业从业人员占比对PM_(2.5)质量浓度升高的贡献最大,而液化石油气供气总量与第三产业占GDP的比重对PM2.5有较为显著的负向消减作用。
With the continuous advancement of industrialization and the rapid development of urbanization,China's environmental pollution is becoming cumulatively serious,which has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life.Selecting the 286 major prefecture-level cities in China as the study area,using the raster data of the average annual PM_(2.5) mass concentration in Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016 provided by the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group at Dalhousie University in Canada,and employing the methods in spatial autocorrelation and Spatial Durbin Model,this paper reveals the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors of PM_(2.5) mass concentration in Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016.The main findings are as follows:1)The temporal evolution of PM_(2.5) pollution in China shows an"M-shaped"fluctuation trend,the average annual mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in China increased first,then decreased and then increased again from 2003 to 2016.And the spatial distribution of PM_(2.5) pollution in China shows an agglomeration pattern of"high in the east and low in the west"with Hu Line as the boundary.The seriously polluted area is concentrated in the densely populated and economically developed area on the southeast side of the line,while the overall pollution is light on the northwest side.2)The spatial effect of PM_(2.5) pollution in prefecturelevel cities in China shows a significant positive correlation.Globally,Moran's I of PM_(2.5) mass concentration in China's prefecture-level cities was higher than 0.700 from 2003 to 2016.Locally,most cities in Moran scatter plot are located in the first and third quadrants,which more intuitively reflects the positive correlation of PM_(2.5) mass concentration among prefecture-level cities.3)Population density and the proportion of non-agricultural workers are the main factors contributing to the aggravation of PM_(2.5) pollution in China,while the total supply of liquefied petroleum gas and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP have a significant negative reduction effect on PM_(2.5) pollution.Therefore,the environmental problems caused by the current over-concentration of population and unbalanced urbanization development need to be solved urgently.The urban and industrial structure should be optimized and the urbanization process should be improved in the future.While maintaining stable economic growth,the resource-saving and environment-friendly society should be gradually established,so as to promote the early"separation"between economic development and environmental pollution.This article explores the internal spatial correlation of air pollution in China from the macro perspective of global pollution joint prevention and control.The key influencing factors of PM_(2.5) pollution are further explored in order to provide suggestions for air pollution control in China.
作者
刘媛
张蕾
陈娱
陆玉麒
周媛媛
王峰
Liu Yuan;Zhang Lei;Chen Yu;Lu Yuqi;Zhou Yuanyuan;Wang Feng(College of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science,Hubei University,Wuhan 430062,Hubei,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期152-162,共11页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41430635)资助。
