摘要
基于逐渐普遍的连锁股东现象,学术界对其发挥的效应是协同治理还是竞争合谋的讨论也越发激烈。本文从分析师盈余预测视角考察连锁股东如何影响分析师预测行为。研究发现,连锁股东能提高分析师盈余预测质量,降低预测偏差,减少分析师之间的预测分歧度。机制检验发现,连锁股东通过发挥协同效应和治理效应提高分析师预测质量。进一步分析发现,连锁股东的协同治理具有行业效应,因连锁股东形成的同行业企业群越大,连锁股东对分析师盈余预测影响越强;考察主体异质性发现,外资和机构型连锁股东对分析师预测质量的促进作用更强,且连锁股东更能提高低能力分析师的预测质量。本研究从外部信息中介角度丰富了连锁股东的经济影响,提供了通过完善微观企业股东治理改善资本市场运行效率的理论依据。
Based on the growing prevalence of the cross-ownership phenomenon,the academic debate on whether the influence of cross-ownership is collaborative governance or competitive collusion has become increasingly intense.This paper examines how cross-ownership affects analysts’forecasting behavior from the perspective of analysts’earnings forecasts.It is found that cross-ownership can improve the quality of analysts’earnings forecasts,reduce forecast bias,and decrease the degree of forecast disagreement among analysts.The mechanism test finds that cross-ownership improves the quality of analysts’forecasts by exerting synergistic effects and governance effects.Further analyses find that the synergistic governance of cross-ownership has an industry effect.When the group of enterprises in the same industry formed cross-ownership gets larger,the influence of cross-ownership on analysts’earnings forecast gets stronger.By examining the subject heterogeneity,it finds that foreign and institutional cross-ownership have a stronger contribution to analysts’forecast quality,and cross-ownership is more likely to improve the forecast quality of low-ability analysts.This study enriches the economic impact of cross-ownership from the perspective of an external information intermediary.It provides a theoretical basis for increasing the operating efficiency of the capital market by improving the governance of enterprises’shareholders from a micro perspective.
作者
余怒涛
苗瑞晨
袁博
Yu Nutao;Miao Ruichen;Yuan Bo
出处
《证券市场导报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期40-50,共11页
Securities Market Herald
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“供应链客户关系与上市公司大股东行为研究——基于股权质押视角”(批准号:72262034)
国家自然科学基金项目“大股东异质性、退出威胁与企业创新”(批准号:71862037)。
关键词
连锁股东
分析师盈余预测
协同治理
信息环境
董事委派
cross-ownership
analysts’earnings forecast
collaborative governance
information environment
director appointment
