摘要
为促进中国新能源汽车在“后补贴时代”的市场化发展,提出建立面向下游消费者的道路交通碳交易机制以接力补贴政策的退坡。以消费者年均综合成本最小化为目标,建立碳交易机制下的新能源汽车消费选择模型,并计算分析碳交易市场均衡碳价及其影响因素;然后基于福利经济学理论,分析道路交通碳交易机制对社会福利的影响;最后以现实世界中的典型车型作为案例,对模型进行数值验证与情景分析,进而得出相关政策启示。研究结果表明:市场碳价与均衡碳价的关系是影响消费者选择新能源汽车的决定性因素,随着市场碳价不断提高,新能源汽车在碳排放成本方面优势逐渐显现,理性的消费者将更倾向于购买新能源汽车;降低新能源汽车购置成本与电能碳排放因子,可导致均衡碳价下降,进而提高消费者购买新能源汽车的占比;通过合理调控初始碳配额与市场碳价可增加社会平均福利。因此,研究从理论上证明了:引入道路交通碳交易机制可有效驱动消费者对新能源汽车选择行为的转变,促进道路交通低碳转型发展,助力“双碳”目标的实现。
To promote the market-oriented development of China’s new energy vehicles in the“post-subsidy era”,this study proposes to introduce the carbon emission trading(CET)scheme of road transport for downstream consumers to succeed the subsidy policy.Aiming at minimizing the average annual comprehensive cost of consumers,this study establishes the consumption choice model of new energy vehicles under the CET scheme.The equilibrium carbon price is calculated and its influencing factors are analyzed.Then,the impact of the CET scheme on social welfare are analyzed using the theory of welfare economics.Finally,taking typical models in the real world for example,numerical verification and scenario analysis of the model are carried out,and then policy recommendations for increasing the proportion of consumers buying new energy vehicles are drawn.It is found that the relationship between the market carbon price and the equilibrium carbon price is the determinant affecting consumers’choice of new energy vehicles.As the market carbon price continues to increase,the advantages of new energy vehicles in terms of carbon emission cost gradually emerge,and rational consumers will be more inclined to purchase new energy vehicles.Reducing the purchase cost of new energy vehicles and the carbon emission factor of electricity can lead to a decrease in the equilibrium carbon price,which in turn will increase the proportion of consumers purchasing new energy vehicles.The average social welfare can be increased through reasonable settings of initial carbon quotas and market carbon prices.Therefore,this study theoretically demonstrates that the introduction of the CET scheme for road transport can effectively drive the change of consumers’choice behavior for new energy vehicles,promote the low-carbon transition of road transport,and help achieve the targets of“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”.
作者
李文翔
李一鸣
董洁霜
阿如罕
LI Wen-xiang;LI Yi-ming;DONG Jie-shuang;A Ru-han(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期15-26,共12页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52002244)
上海市浦江人才计划项目(2020PJC083)
上海市晨光计划项目(20CG55)
上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题(2020EGL019)。
关键词
新能源汽车
碳交易
均衡碳价
消费选择
社会福利
情景分析
New Energy Vehicles
Carbon Emission Trading Scheme
Equilibrium Carbon Price
Consumption Choice Behavior
Social Welfare
Scenario Analysis
