摘要
为解决在路面使用性能预测过程中预测值与实测值间误差波动较大这一问题,采用Semi-Markov模型对山东省某国道的使用性能进行预测,同时将预测结果与实测数据进行对比。结果显示,Semi-Markov模型能够有效预测道路使用寿命,且对早期道路使用状况的预测结果精确度更高,而随着预测年限的延长,预测结果受道路养护措施的影响很大,需采取主动干预措施进行修正,Semi-Markov模型为准确预测沥青路面早期使用性能变化趋势并得到合理的养护决策提供可靠依据。
In order to solve the problem that the error between the predicted value and the measured value fluctuates greatly in the process of predicting various indicators of pavement performance,the Semi-Markov model is used to predict the performance of a national highway in Shandong Province,and the prediction results are compared with the measured data.The results reveal that the Semi-Markov model can accurately anticipate the road’s service life,and the early road usage conditions prediction results are more accurate.Road repair initiatives have an impact on the forecast findings when the prediction period is extended.To rectify it,it must require active intervention methods.The Semi-Markov model provides a solid foundation for properly anticipating the changing trend of an asphalt pavement’s early performance and making informed maintenance decisions.
作者
祁冰
宋书康
丁博
靖立峥
Qi Bing;Song Shu-kang;Ding Bo;Jing Li-zheng
出处
《建筑技术开发》
2023年第1期123-125,共3页
Building Technology Development
