摘要
20世纪90年代以来,西方学界用跨国数据回归来论证西式民主对经济增长的促进作用,但未能得出令人信服的结果。2019年,阿西莫格鲁等人根据175个国家的面板数据和多种模型的结果,使西方学界关于西式民主的“优势”形成了“短暂性的共识”。在梳理跨国回归学派理论发展的基础上,文章重新对这一结论进行检测,在考虑到发达国家对西式民主作用的高估、采用主流政体度量指标,以及减少变量间内生性后,西式民主的作用不再稳健或直接消失。总之,西式民主的“优势”是不确定的。文章认为,政治制度对经济发展的影响是间接的、有特定渠道和有条件的。鉴于制度只是“发展的新三角”的其中一个角,关于发展的新制度经济学需要拓宽视野,不应再局限于政治制度或者是产权。
Since the 1990s, Western scholars have adopted cross-national data and argued that democracy does cause economic growth. However, this attempt has failed for four decades. In 2019, using a panel of 175 countries and several different strategies, ANNR estimated the impact on the economic growth of democracy worldwide and arrived at a positive robustness result. This work makes the effect of democracy on economic growth arrive at a temporary consensus. Based on a review of the theoretical development of the cross-country regression school, this article re-examines this result. When accounting for the overestimation of the effect of industrialized democracies, applying the more commonly used measures, and reducing the endogenous among the variables, the advantage of the democracy is not robustness or disappears. To sum up, the advantage that democracy affects growth does not exist. The article argues that the effect of institutions on economic growth is indirect and needs some particular channels and some conditions. Moreover, the institution is only one angle of the “New Development Triangle”. Therefore, new institutional economics needs to be broadened beyond the political institutions or property rights.
作者
唐睿
唐世平
Tang Rui;Tang Shiping(Institute of Contemporary Socialism,Shandong University,Qingdao;School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai)
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期164-175,共12页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
