摘要
引江济淮工程PPP项目建设由于其本身的特点,具有较多的风险因素,在研究国内跨流域调水风险的基础上,选择江水北送段作为研究对象,分析该区域跨流域调水的主要风险因素。为有效对引江济淮PPP项目进行风险评价,使用熵权法求出各项指标的权重;再利用运用灰色关联理论计算出各因素与引江济淮工程的关联程度,与风险因素造成的损失程度。通过对实例中风险指标分析表明,其中影响较大的风险因素分别为:自然风险、环境风险、运营风险,风险损失值分别为0.8889、0.8889、0.7365,表明了引江济淮工程的主要风险因素,为科学决策提供依据。
The construction of Yangtze-to-Huaihe-Diversion PPP project has many risk factors due to its own characteristics.Based on the study on the risk of domestic interbasin water transfer, this research analyzes the main risk factors in Yangtze-to-Huaihe Diversion project.In order to effectively evaluate the risk of the PPP project, this paper confirms the index weights by entropy weight method, and calculates the degree of relevance between each factor and the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Diversion, as well as the loss caused by those risk factors with grey correlation analysis.The analysis of risk indicators in the case shows that the influential risk factors include natural risk, environmental risk and operation risk, with risk value of 0.8889,0.8889 and 0.7365 respectively, indicating the main risk factors of the project and providing a basis for scientific decision-making.
作者
宋玉军
王宇祥
SONG Yu-jun;WANG Yu-xiang(Hefei University,Hefei,Anhui,230013,China;Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei,Anhui,230041,China)
出处
《武汉商学院学报》
2022年第5期64-69,共6页
Journal of Wuhan Business University
关键词
引江济淮熵权法
灰色关联分析
PPP项目风险评价
entropy weight method for Yangtze-to-Huaihe-Diversion project
grey correlation analysis
risk evaluation of PPP project
